“Moreover, the weapons currently being transferred to Ukraine have long shelf lives that may extend well beyond the duration of this conflict. And as incentive structures that have thus far acted as a constraint on weapons diversion evolve, so too will the risks,” the report said on Wednesday.
There are numerous examples of a cessation in hostilities preceding a surge in illicit arms flows, the report said. The United States must remain vigilant and respond to the evolving situation in the long term, the report said.
Artillery rounds and cluster munitions will leave behind “literal tons” of unexploded ordnance in Ukraine, which illicit actors could easily repurpose for unintended uses, the report said.
US oversight of weapons sent to Ukraine remains inadequate, despite investments in diversion mitigation, the report said. Last month, a US Defense Department inspector general report found that the Pentagon failed to meet monitoring requirements for approximately $1 billion worth of equipment.
The US should also bolster efforts to ensure Ukraine complies with international humanitarian law and civilian protection obligations, the report said. The US should place conditions on the use of long-range strike capabilities, the report said.
Moreover, the US should work with European partners on diversion mitigation plans to ensure synchronization and deconfliction, the report said.