Americans from more than a dozen states have the opportunity to vote in Republican and Democratic presidential primaries and caucuses on Tuesday, with primaries taking place in states including: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia.
Alaska and Utah are holding Republican caucuses, while Democrats are holding a caucus in the unincorporated South Pacific island territory of American Samoa.
As tradition dictates, the incumbent first term president – in this case Joe Biden, enjoys a commanding lead in the Democratic field, with only Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips and author Marianne Williamson challenging him, but winning no delegates so far. Biden has picked up 449 of 3,934 available delegates in electoral contests held to date, with two delegates picked as ‘uncommitted’ during last week’s Michigan Democratic primary. He is expected to handily win Super Tuesday contests in every state engaged in voting.
Among Republicans, the baker’s dozen of candidates who entered the race in 2023 has dwindled to two – with only former president Donald Trump and former South Carolina governor and UN ambassador Nikki Haley remaining.
Trump, the GOP enfant terrible who broke with George W. Bush-style Republicans in 2015 to give rise to a new populist, anti-interventionist, anti-free trade and anti-globalist wing of the GOP, enters Super Tuesday with a commanding lead, winning 273 of 2,429 total available delegates to date, and taking 64 percent of the primary vote so far. Despite picking up 31.7 percent of the vote and 43 delegates before March 5, Haley has finished first in only one of the twelve contests held to date - in Washington, DC on March 3. Trump defeated Haley in her home state of South Carolina on February 24.
Haley represents a return to the more traditional, neoconservative GOP that emerged in the 1980s, cheerleading the strengthening of US alliances and offering unequivocal support for US-sponsored wars and interventions abroad, including in Ukraine and Gaza. Domestically, Haley has advocated for an illegal immigration crackdown similar to the one proposed by Trump, although the former president has accused her of siding with “globalist” Democrats on the issue. On trade, the candidate has stepped out against Trump’s proposal to levy a 60 percent tariff on all Chinese imports, calling it “ludicrous” and suggesting it would “affect American families on anything from baby strollers to appliances.”
Haley, in turn, has called Trump “diminished” and “unhinged,” suggested that his election for a second term would be “suicide for our country,” and attacked him for “emboldening our enemies” by refusing to commit the US to defend NATO allies who don’t pay their fair share for alliance defense.
What Do the Polls Say?
The RealClearPolitics aggregate polling data shows Trump with a commanding lead over Haley nationwide (79 percent to 11 percent, respectively).
Broken down by state, the former president enjoys a similarly comfortable advantage, although the margins are closer in select states.
Polling in states holding Republican primaries on Super Tuesday 2024
State | Donald Trump | Nikki Haley |
Alabama | 87% | 12% |
California | 72% | 18.5% |
Maine | 77% | 19% |
Massachusetts | 65.5% | 28.7% |
Minnesota | 76% | 14% |
North Carolina | 72.7% | 18% |
Oklahoma | 88% | 11% |
Tennessee | 81% | 11% |
Texas | 82% | 12% |
Vermont | 61% | 31% |
Virginia | 78% | 19% |
Since 1984, only one candidate – Democratic Senator Gary Hart of Indiana, won Super Tuesday but went on to lose the nomination. The big voting day can also be an opportunity for a candidate to turn their campaign around, with Democrat Bill Clinton losing earlier primaries but going on to win key states on Super Tuesday in 1992, which gave him momentum to eventually secure his party’s nomination.