A former US Army officer has predicted that future wars between great powers will be like the Ukrainian conflict — and Western armies are unprepared for protracted attritional warfare.
"In attritional wars, military operations are shaped by a state's ability to replace losses and generate new formations, not tactical and operational maneuvers," writes Alex Vershinin, retired US Army lieutenant colonel, in a Royal United Services Institute article, "The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine," published on Monday.
Unlike maneuver warfare, which requires swift and violent obliteration of an adversary, the military expert argued that a war of attrition lasts years. The army that concentrates its strategy on destroying enemy forces rather than making territorial gains could emerge the victor.
Vershinin highlighted that Western militaries had long avoided attritional wars, favoring shorter, maneuver-oriented engagements. He asserted that victory depends on an army’s ability to replenish losses while fighting and the importance of formidable firepower.
While Ukraine relies on arms and ammunition shipments from its Western allies, its artillery high burn rate has necessitated more investment in munitions production.
“So compared to the defense budget from just five years ago, we're putting nearly 50 percent more money into munitions," US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin remarked last year at the Ronald Reagan National Defense Forum in California.
Vershinin stated that the Ukrainian conflict has pressed the US military to assess its actual ammunition needs in the event of a future conflict.
As NATO and their allies scramble to source arms, ammo, and other military equipment, Russia has overseen a monumental ramping up of industrial output capacity of up to 250,000 artillery munitions monthly or roughly 3 million annually. This outstrips the US and Europe’s combined capacity of about 1.2 million munitions yearly, a top European intelligence source told the press.
There is a deepening rift within the European Union (EU) regarding where to find funds to maintain support of the regime in Kiev. Germany, Italy, Spain, and other countries are gripped by donor fatigue, depleted weapon stocks and defense capabilities.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said his country's armed forces needed 2.5 million artillery shells in 2024, but the EU was able to send only 400,000.
"Wars of attrition are won by economies enabling mass mobilization of militaries via their industrial sectors...Armies expand rapidly during such a conflict, requiring massive quantities of armored vehicles, drones, electronic products, and other combat equipment," Vershinin wrote.
The Ukrainian conflict has shown Russia’s capacity to replace military equipment, munitions, and personnel lost in combat. Kiev regime, in turn, scrambles to reinforce its dwindling numbers of troops by press-ganging citizens in the street.