Residents of the Solomon Islands will go to the polls for general elections on April 17 to elect a new parliament and prime minister, with the vote expected to determine the country’s future both domestically and vis-à-vis the escalating security competition between the US and China in the Pacific region.
In November 2021, violent riots triggered by the Taiwan/PRC recognition switch saw an attempt by protestors to storm parliament and oust Sogavare, with rioters setting fire to a police station, burning down businesses and looting the Chinatown district in Honiara, the Solomons' capital. Sogavare blamed “foreign powers” for the unrest, accusing outside forces of feeding rioters “false and deliberate lies about the switch.”
“I don’t want to name names, we’ll leave it there, we know who they are,” Sogavare said at the time.
Through this period, Honiara's ties with Beijing continued to warm, culminating in the spring 2022 signing of a security pact. The agreement allowed China to deploy police and troops to the Solomons, if called upon, to help maintain order and protect lives and property, and for Chinese warships to make port visits to the nation’s harbors to stock up on fuel and supplies.
Despite US and Australian claims to the contrary, China insisted that it had "no intention at all" of setting up any permanent military presence in the Pacific island nation, and assured that the pact is not "targeted at any third country."
Meanwhile, relations with the US continued to sour. In March 2023, Sogavare informed White House National Security Council Indo-Pacific Coordinator Kurt Campbell that he had become aware of a US-backed plot to assassinate him. Six months later, in September, asked why he had refused an invitation to meet President Biden in Washington alongside other Pacific leaders following a session of the UN General Assembly, the prime minister said he was tired of efforts by US officials to talk down to Honiara. “I’m not going to sit there and listen to people lecture me, no way,” Sogavare said.
“They must change their strategies,” Sogavare added, urging Washington to show Pacific leaders more respect instead of giving them “three minutes to talk” and then lecturing them “about how good they are.”
US Rediscovers Solomons' Existence
Given its potential geostrategic implications, the upcoming election in the Solomon Islands is being monitored closely by the US and its allies, with State Department media arm outlet Voice of America* making it clear that Washington sees “China influence” as the key issue in the looming vote. The UK, Australia, and New Zealand plan to send media observers, and Canberra and Wellington will have a police and troop presence on the ground to provide “security” and “logistics” support.
Behind the scenes, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) may be playing a highly active role using 'democracy promotion' activities to advance what amounts to an electoral coup against Sogavare. But more on that below.
This is all quite a shift away from the old complacency traditionally marking US policy toward the region, says William Jones, an Asia-Pacific affairs expert and former White House correspondent for Executive Intelligence Review magazine.
In an interview with Sputnik, Jones pointed out that despite the crucial role played by Pacific islanders during the US's island-hopping campaigns during the Second World War, the islands have generally "hardly made a blip in US foreign policy considerations" in the 80 years since, with US presidents and secretaries of state almost never bothering to visit the region.
The sudden surge in interest in the Solomons is the result of "the rise of China as a major power in the region," Jones says, noting that the islands "lie on what has been called the 'Second Island Chain' separating China from the open Pacific Ocean," and that the PRC's "interest in developing a 'blue water navy' in accordance with its growing position as a major maritime power" being something that the US and its regional allies, first and foremost Australia, "would like to prevent."
Excerpt from New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy map showing the East Asian and Pacific Island nations at the faultlines of the US's so-called 'Island Chain Strategy', designed to hem China in militarily and commercially in its home shores.
© Photo : New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy
Lingnan University Center for Asian Pacific Studies director Dr. Zhang Baohui agrees, telling Sputnik that "US interest in the future direction of the Solomon Islands, including the outcome of this election, is driven by the increasingly bipolar competition with China."
Washington, Zhang explained, is approaching the competition with China as a "zero sum game," and "the US concern for the Solomon Islands reflects these imperatives. The US worries that any Chinese gain could tip the balance, especially by triggering snow-balling effects in other Pacific island countries that may lead them to tilt towards China."
In reality, Jones noted, the "uproar" in Washington and Canberra over the 2022 Solomon Islands-China security pact is overblown, with the "actual distance" between the islands and Australia some 1,200 nautical miles away , "about the same distance as US bases in the Philippines are to China, not to speak of the US special forces that are now allegedly operating in Taiwan, which is around 130 miles from the Chinese [mainland] coast."
Nonetheless, as elections in the Solomons approach, Jones expects the US to "ben[d] over backwards to get new leadership which will be less friendly with China" in an effort to maintain strategic control over the island chains and protect "US interests in these long-neglected island nations."
"This election is important in the sense that it [will] determine the future strategic leanings of the Solomon Islands," Dr. Victor Teo, a political scientist specializing in Indo-Pacific Affairs, told Sputnik. "If any of the governments [among the Pacific Island nations] so much as 'tilt' towards Beijing, it sets off alarm bells for US and Australian officials."
Accordingly, Teo said, "both the Chinese as well as the Americans/Australians would want a government that is friendly to them," even if Prime Minister Sogavare himself has announced a desire to "reduce his country's dependence" on all foreign countries, and to "maintain a friendly approach to all powers."
As far as Honiara's relations with China are concerned, Teo believes Sogavare's efforts are aimed first and foremost at achieving "better development outcomes for the Solomon Islands."
Professor Joe Siracusa, a veteran political scientist and dean of Global Futures at Curtin University in Australia, agrees with that assessment, saying that while the US and its allies may see the Solomons only as a strategic plot of land for "containing China," the Sogavare government views the PRC as a potential model for economic prosperity.
Being forced to choose between Washington and Beijing, "the leader of the Solomon Islands reckoned that Asia is now the center of the world, and that Beijing represents the greatest power there. It is a template for defeating poverty and it's a template for development. America no longer has anything anybody wants in these parts of the developing world. So the leader of the Solomons...has decided to use China as a model for what he wants to do. And he's determined to do it," Siracusa explained.
'Cultivating Networks'
Responding to the geostrategic and potential ideological threat posed by Sogavare, Washington has deployed its soft power tools in the Solomons ahead of the April 17 election.
"Aid programs, beginning with Herbert Hoover's aid programs to Russia in 1917-1918, are designed to change values toward the Americans or towards the West. There is no free lunch. If you want this aid, you have to listen to the sermon that goes along with it. And the sermon is that they expect you to line up against what they call an 'autocracy' in favor of American 'democracy'. And I'll tell you the truth: sometimes you can't tell the difference," Siracusa said.
"They send people in on the ground to cultivate networks. And they hire people who are in favor of whatever they're trying to do. They have their own kind of internal networks...They hire people who want to side with the American version of events, and they hope to spread the word. It's just a matter of developing networks on the ground," the academic explained.
Just how deep a role USAID is playing on the ground ahead of the vote is up for debate. Publicly, the agency has touted its regional efforts at poverty reduction, as well as a series of economic projects. Behind the scenes, however, processes amounting to direct political interference may be underway.
Outlining the architecture of USAID's political operations in the country, the source, who asked to remain anonymous given the sensitive nature of the information being shared, explained that the agency's Solomons mission is overseen by the International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES), a National Endowment for Democracy (NED) cutout nonprofit working in coordination with the Solomon Islands’ section of the Supporting Democratic Governance in the Pacific Islands (SDGPI) program. The latter describes itself as a regional "democratic governance" initiative, whose purview includes activities not just in the Solomons, but Fiji, the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, and other countries in the region.
Documents provided by the source appear to indicate that Sogavare’s 2019 election and his slow geopolitical swing away from Washington was followed, within a year, by a push by USAID and its partners, including the IFES, as well as the International Republican Institute (IRI) and the National Democratic Institute (NDI), to kick off a “voter awareness campaign” in the Solomons known as the Solomon Islands Election and Political Processes Program (SIEPP).
This initiative, known under the umbrella term “Strengthening Democratic Governance in the Pacific Islands,” was organized under the auspices of USAID’s Consortium for Election and Political Process Strengthening (CEPPS), and was provided an initial operating budget of nearly $10 million for the period between September 30, 2020 and September 29, 2023, including $4.7 million for the IFES, $2.25 million for the IRI and $2.48 million for the NDI.
The program was initially expected to run until the fall of 2023, when the Solomons were originally set to have their general elections, but was extended and topped up with an additional $1.5 million to cover CEPPS expenses through April of 2024 after the vote was postponed by Prime Minister Sogavare, to $10.325 million total.
Letter from USAID Regional Office of Acquisition and Assistance agreement officer Stephane C. Bright to Kira Ribar, senior administrative director to the Consortium for Elections and Political Process Strengthening (CEPPS) regarding allocations to the Solomon Islands Election and Political Process Fund.
© Sputnik / Anonymous source
Internal communications between USAID's Pacific regional office in the Philippines and CEPPS senior administrative director Kira Ribar included a program description of the "types of activities and outputs desired" from the millions being spent on the agency's activities.
An attachment to one of the communications indicated that the “tension and conflict” on the islands in connection with the government's foreign and domestic policies were signs that the Solomons are “unable to address critical issues and grievances and dispel unrest,” and that “therefore, CEPPS is obligated to take the opportunities [to] promote democratic processes," including by working with “marginalized groups,” to “promote elections as a sustainable vehicle for democratic transitions.”
Goals and Objectives of Solomon Islands Elections & Political Processes (EPP) Fund document attached to a USAID funding approval. Provided to Sputnik by an anonymous source showing intimate familiarity with USAID activities in the Solomons.
© Sputnik / Anonymous
Sputnik’s source said that when it received a “go signal” from USAID, the “IFES’s priority was to connect with political leaders, civil society organizations and influential individuals” in local communities.
A strategic pool of “project consultants” was reportedly established as far back as October 2020, just a year after Sogavare's election, and more than a year before the 2021 riots, including a senior member of the Solomon Islands Electoral Commission, senior opposition leaders, the secretary of the Solomon Islands National Council of Women, and the chair of Malaita Youth Caucuas - a local youth social networking organization.
A CEPPS “Cost Extension” document for the period September 30, 2020 – September 29, 2023 summarized plans to “reinforce the foundations of good governance and shape democracy” in the Solomons via “national surveys and focus group discussions,” along with “stakeholder convenings, including conferences and workshops for government, political parties, civil society and local communities, to socialize and validate findings and provide capacity building to improve consensus building” ahead of the election.
USAID Consortium for Election and Political Process Strengthening (CEPPS) document showing funding outlays for activities in the Solomon Islands under the auspices of "strengthening democratic governance" in the Pacific Islands.
© Sputnik / Anonymous source
'Plan B'
Sputnik's source said the IFES felt that “by reaching across these areas of leadership and building a wide network, it [would be] possible to establish a powerful mobilization capacity for its subsequent activities in SI [the Solomon Islands], for example to promote American ‘democratic principles’, and even accomplish a ‘democratic transition’ by violent means in necessary circumstances.”
The individual warned that if push comes to shove, the IFES has the ability to leverage tensions and collaborate with local partners to incite “impulsive and immature” youth to spark violence – with USAID allegedly already successfully “cooperating” with local opposition forces led by Mathew Wale and former Malaita Province Premier Daniel Suidani to spark the 2021 Honiara riots.
In addition to these activities, USAID has apparently also been involved in the sponsorship of surveys taken in opposition-majority constituencies via its networks to characterize the Sogavare government as one wracked by poor governance and low public trust. These networks reportedly include Transparency Solomon Islands, People With Disability Solomon Islands, the Solomon Islands Development Trust, Malaita Women Caucus and Malaita Youth Caucus, the Solomon Islands National Council of Women, the National Youth Congress, and the Solomon Islands Social Accountability Coalition – a faith-based Oxfam Solomon Islands proxy.
These civil society organizations helped to “expand the coverage of anti-government sentiment in local communities” using training and awareness programs, the source said, with the engagements designed to maneuver voters into the idea that “the current situation of poor governance” could only be resolved my making the “right choice” come election time.
Excerpt from a cost extension on a USAID's Strengthening Democratic Governance in the Pacific Islands (SDGPI) program in the Solomon Islands outlining the agency's 'Theory of Change' approach to "the foundations of good goverance and democratic resilience."
© Sputnik / Anonymous
The source expressed concerns that the US may resort to fomenting another riot during the upcoming election, which they said has “become a consensus” for USAID and its local allies, although it’s uncertain whether this may be done before the vote to try to undermine it, or afterwards “to change” an unsatisfactory result.
“For me, what I really care about is not the motivation of the US intervention in foreign countries’ general election, but the terrible consequences that this may cause. If the [USAID-sponsored] ‘awareness campaign’ fails, the US has still got a Plan B. The US and its agents have almost come into agreement that they will again plan another riot just like the 2021 Honiara riot to achieve their goals,” the source told Sputnik.
“The reason I choose to expose this is to try to prevent a possible disaster. This is urgent. Solomon Islanders are very simple and kind. Their rights of equality, freedom and development should be respected. They should not be played by any external forces,” the source summed up.
* Designated a foreign agent under Russian law.