While the April 19 attack on Iran was quickly attributed to Israel by the media, it is not immediately clear who carried out this strike, argues political analyst Alexander Kargin, an expert on Israel and the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region.
He points out that so far neither Israel nor Iran have confirmed that it was an Israeli attack, with the whole incident currently being portrayed simply as a drone strike on an Iranian airbase.
If the attack was indeed an Israeli reprisal, then Tel Aviv probably would have claimed responsibility, as is commonly done during such retaliations “of a public nature,” Kargin remarked.
Meanwhile, Iran has also so far refrained from accusing Israel, which is rather “symptomatic” given that Tehran is prone to see “the Zionists’ hand” behind a lot of things, he added.
If, however, the strike on Iran was Israel’s doing, then it appears that Tel Aviv opted not to carry out any serious retaliation for the April 14 missile attack, Kargin said, noting that the damage done to Iran appears to be minimal.
“I cannot rule out the possibility of Israel saying that it wasn’t their doing and blaming it on some local forces, because the attack was very weak,” he said. “It seems that the strike was weak, and no meaningful damage was dealt to the Iranians.”
There is also a possibility that Israel agreed to tone down its response to Iran in exchange for some kind of preferences from the US, Kargin mused.
For example, the analyst speculated, Tel Aviv might have agreed to refrain from launching a full-scale retaliation against Iran, which would’ve likely trigger a serious escalation in the Middle East and create serious problems for the Biden administration right before the upcoming presidential election in the United States.
In exchange, Israel could have got the US to stop opposing an Israeli military operation in the city of Rafah, a densely-packed refugee enclave in the Gaza Strip, he suggested.
“I repeat, we should wait until the situation becomes clear. But apparently, it all came down to Israel getting something from the US and performing such a pinpoint strike on Iran in return.”