Forty-one percent (41%) of respondents believe that a second US civil war is likely in the next five years, the poll report said. The figure includes 16% of respondents who believe that a second civil war is very likely, the poll report said.
However, nearly half of respondents, 49%, believe that a civil war is not likely within the next five years, including 20% who believe it is not likely at all, the poll report said. Ten percent (10%) of respondents are unsure, the poll report added.
A greater proportion of respondents believe that a civil war is more likely to occur if US President Joe Biden is reelected than if former US President Donald Trump wins the White House — 37% and 25%, respectively — the poll report said.
Thirty percent (30%) of respondents believe that the outcome of the 2024 presidential election will not impact the chances of a civil war, the poll report said.
The poll surveyed 1,105 likely US voters from April 21-23. The poll maintains a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points with a 95% confidence level.