An advisor to the Houthi campaign in support of Palestine has warned that Israel’s decision to invade the Gaza city of Rafah will provoke a new round of escalation, including efforts by the militia to target Israeli ships anywhere they can be reached.
“The Israeli escalation in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank and their threat to invade Rafah will be met with a Yemeni response and the launching of the fourth round of escalation,” Houthi official Allama Muhammad Muftah told Yemen’s Houthi-affilliated Al-Masirah TV, with his remarks picked up by Iran’s PressTV on Wednesday.
“In case of any escalation [in Rafah, ed.] the Yemeni armed forces’ decision is clear, and a more extensive and broader escalation may occur,” Muftah warned.
The official’s comments were preceded by remarks by Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree warning that the Israeli invasion of Rafah would prompt the Houthis to target “all” ships attempting to make their way to Israeli ports “in the Mediterranean in any area within our reach.”
The remarks by the militia, which also go by the name Ansar Allah (‘Supporters of God’), have been accompanied by a barrage of drone and missile attacks in the Gulf of Aden, with CENTCOM counting four projectiles - three drones and an anti-ship missile, in an X post Wednesday morning. One of the drones was shot down by a US warship, with another said to have been destroyed by a “coalition ship” (country unspecified).
“It was determined that these weapons presented an imminent threat to both coalition forces and merchant vessels in the region,” CENTCOM said.
In a related development, Houthi Supreme Political Council Chief Mahdi Al-Mashat confirmed reporting in UAE media from last week indicating that the US had privately offered the Houthis certain material incentives if they halted their Red Sea attacks. “We will continue…until our country’s whole national territory is liberated, and the blockade and injustice placed on our people in Gaza are removed,” Al-Mashat said Tuesday.
New Dimension to Houthi Capabilities
Meanwhile, the Center for International Maritime Security – a Maryland-based think tank with suspected links to the US intelligence and the military, published an alarming report Wednesday warning that the next escalation of the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping may come in the form of low-cost unmanned undersea vehicle drones.
“The operational range and payload capacity of Houthi UUVs are currently unknown. However, even a modest range, measured in tens of miles, could enable them to target commercial shipping within the Red Sea. Their potential payload could include mines, torpedoes, or explosives packed into the hull, possibly enough to inflict significant damage on unsuspecting commercial vessels,” the CIMSEC piece, written by Sri Lankan Navy Commander Amila Prasanga, warned.
“Houthi UUVs likely lack sophisticated guidance and targeting systems compared to military-grade undersea drones. They may rely on basic GPS or pre-programmed routes, as well as wire guidance. However, this simplicity can also make them difficult to detect and eliminate before they reach their targets,” the article added.
“The impact of Houthi UUVs extends far beyond potential damage to individual ships. The very presence of undersea threats is disruptive, given how the stealth of undersea platforms can magnify the effects of their operations and substantially shape the behaviors of those under threat,” the piece noted, with “even minor disruptions in Red Sea shipping” having potential “cascading” effects on global economies.
Dealing with the threat would require the deployment of mine countermeasures warships and anti-submarine warfare capabilities adapted for use against UUVs, including sonobuoys, towed array sonars, dipping sonars and hydrophone arrays. However, Prasanga warned that these sophisticated undersea surveillance capabilities “may not be optimal for detecting low-signature Houthi UUVs, particularly in the acoustic environments of the Red Sea,” with large ships traveling in the area themselves complicating the search.
The escalation of Houthi attacks follows a brief lull in hostilities facilitated by Hamas’s announcement Monday that it would be prepared to accept a ceasefire with Israel. Israel’s rejection of the proposal prompted the Houthis, but also Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iraqi militias to ramp up operations targeting Israeli and allied interests.
Ansar Allah has said repeatedly that it will stop its campaign, which has caused tens of billions of dollars in economic damage to economies in Europe and Asia, when Israel stops its punitive operation in Gaza.