Yet while Kiev may indeed push for a truce, it currently has no intention to settle the conflict permanently, he warns.
“Of course it is a ruse,” Matviychuk explains. “There is the matter of the F-16 shipments; there is even talk that they have already showed up in Ukraine. The shipments of sufficiently powerful weapons from the UK and France. The changing of the military personnel training system, the transition to NATO standards. All of this shows that Ukraine does not want peace, that it does not want to be a neutral state. Ukraine wants to be a regional power with one more accent: it must threaten Russia.”
As the Russian forces continue to break through Ukrainian defenses and push forward, the Ukrainian leadership now desperately wants to avoid the scenario where they end up watching the Russian flag being raised over Kiev.
Thus, Matviychuk reasons, the best option for them may be to sign a peace treaty in order to “recuperate, restore their military capability and perhaps the economic potential, secure NATO’s support, revive their army and train new personnel, with all the ensuing consequences.”
According to Matviychuk, Kiev seeks an alternative to Zelensky’s so-called “peace formula” – which is, in fact, nothing more than an ultimatum to Russia – and may even agree to make territorial concessions to Moscow, possibly recognizing Russia’s sovereignty over Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, as well as over Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics.
That said, the new “peace formula” would almost certainly be prepared by Kiev with a future “revanche” against Russia in mind, the analyst points out.
In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined a proposal which he says can finally resolve the Ukrainian conflict.
Under the auspices of Putin’s initiative, Ukrainian forces are to be pulled out from Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republic, as well as from Kherson and Zaporozhye regions; all of these four regions are to be recognized as Russia’s territory.
Ukraine is to become a neutral, non-nuclear state that is not part of any blocs, and all sanctions imposed by the US and its allies on Russia are to be removed.
While both Kiev and its Western sponsors rejected Russia’s proposal, Putin deemed their reaction predictable but suggested that this “nihilism” cannot continue forever. The Russian president noted that his proposal remains on the table but it is up to other interested parties to decide when to begin negotiations.
Zelensky’s Motion for Peace Talks Spurred by Fear of a Civil War in Ukraine
The Ukrainian head's sudden call to lay the groundwork for ending the Ukrainian conflict comes as Ukraine tethers on the brink of a massive social upheaval, notes Russian military analyst Anatoly Matviychuk.
“There are not just the radicals who oppose Zelensky – virtually all of Ukraine’s population is against Zelensky,” Matviychuk says, pointing at a growing number of Ukrainian military recruitment centers being torched by the locals in response to Kiev’s brutal press-ganging tactics.
“So if the situation on the frontline is not resolved, if this slaughter – a terrible slaughter that has already become critical for the people of Ukraine – is not stopped, then Ukraine will end up not just with a war but with a civil war on its hands,” the analyst warns.
According to him, Zelensky’s Western handlers have likely arrived at the same conclusions and advised him to sue for peace in order for Zelensky to keep power and stay alive.
Matviychuk also suggests that the current crisis in the Middle East also does not do any favors to Ukraine as Kiev’s Western sponsors now direct all of their resources towards the Middle Eastern theater.
“No handouts for Ukraine are to be expected anytime soon, I think, even until the elections,” he says, referring to the upcoming presidential election in the US.