Israel is incapable of fulfilling two of the three descriptors Gallant gave of Israel’s planned attack against Iran.
Israel has proven that it is capable of surprising attacks. The bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and the pager terror attack in Lebanon are proof of that, though much of the surprise stems from Israel’s willingness to run afoul of international and humanitarian law.
The precise descriptor is dismissible on its face. Over the past year, Israel’s attacks on Gaza and Lebanon have shown that even if Israel has the capability of being precise, they are not inclined to. Israel’s destruction of Gaza has been as indiscriminate as anything the world has seen since the Mongol invasion of Persia.
Considering the power of a potential attack, Israel has shown it has large bombs and a capable air force, but Iran is not Gaza, it is not even Lebanon. Iran is more than capable of defending itself from an attack by Israel that resembles its attacks on Lebanon.
“Iran produces some of the best [air] defense systems in the world,” explained Iran-based journalist Ehsan Safarnejad on Sputnik’s Fault Lines. “Remember that time that Iran shot down an American drone MQ-4C Triton? One of the most advanced US drones at that time [and] Iran shot it down very easily. So Iran has that capability… and even if you do [strike Iran with fighter jets] then there is no airport for you to come back to because Iran will consider that as a legitimate target and the international community will side with Iran, obviously.”
“So, that scenario is very implausible,” he concluded.
That rules out an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, at least any significant one, Safarnejad said, noting that the 80 tons of bunker-buster bombs used to kill Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah were not directly responsible for his death.
According to Israeli media, Nasrallah died from suffocating on “toxic fumes” that were released in the explosion. Others accuse the Israelis of using chemical weapons, but both agree that Nasrallah survived the blast.
“Now… compare [Hezbollah] tunnels to the tunnels that Iran has drilled into mountains in order to protect its own nuclear facilities. There is a very big difference between them. If you couldn’t do that to Hezbollah, you’re most certainly not capable of doing that to the Iranian nuclear facilities,” Safarnejad said.
Another option media outlets and experts are floating is that Israel would attack Iranian oil depots and fields, this too, is unlikely, Safarnejad said.
After the October 1 Iranian attack, global crude oil prices rose significantly. Last week, Brent Crude rose to $80 a barrel after US President Joe Biden gave a non-committal “we’re discussing that,” when asked if the Israeli attack could include Iranian oil infrastructure.
While OPEC countries have the supplies to make up the difference if Iran cannot export oil, the scare to investors would undoubtedly raise the price. If Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz, a major supply point for the world oil supply that most of the OPEC countries with excess supply use, prices could rise over $100 a barrel according to The Soufan Center think tank, ushering in “a severe energy crisis.”
“If [Israel chooses] to do that, I think we can relatively comfortably say that the [Harris-Walz] campaign has to kiss goodbye” their election chances, said Safarnejad. “So I’m not really sure that the Biden-Harris administration would really allow them to go to this extent.”
Instead, Safarnejad predicts that the Israeli attack will come in one, or a combination of two forms: an ostentatious attack on a non-critical Iranian pipeline and terrorist attacks using their proxies in Iran.
“I expect them to do something like blowing up a pipeline. Not another major strategic one, but I expect them to do that because… Obviously, when you blow up a pipeline, the gas flows and the fire will rise up a few meters above the ground, so it makes a very good theatrical response for the Israelis to say ‘Look, we did something.’ I expect them to do that, but not really any major attack from outside of the Iranian borders to be launched on the Iranian borders.
“[Israel’s] modus operandi is that they usually use their collaborators, the agents, the saboteurs that they have inside in Iran and the proxies they have,” he continued, noting that a terrorist organization called M.E.K. assassinated Iranian nuclear scientists in the 2000s as well as a group that calls itself Jaish al-Adl.
“So, probably, they’re going to activate those terrorist cells in those parts of Iran as well. This is my expectation of them,” Safarnejad concluded.
On Thursday, Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a call. According to US media citing an Israeli official, the “gap” between the two leaders on the attack plan “had narrowed.”