There is a certain danger of a “domino effect” involving mutual destruction of surrounding satellites by debris from the exploded European satellite Intelsat-33e, Dr. Natan Eismont, a leading researcher with the Russian Academy of Scientists’ Space Research Institute told Sputnik.
“An explosion means a scattering of fragments. Today’s updated systems can determine the trajectories of these fragments, allowing to predict whether they are likely to hit any of the other devices in geostationary orbit. So far, there have been no such reports of collisions, yet a great many debris fragments were formed in the explosion. Each of them poses a real danger in the event of impact with active devices,” the researcher said.
Over 80 fragments of the Boeing-manufactured European communication satellite Intelsat 33e that fell apart on October 19 have been detected by Russia's automated system for warning of risky situations in near-Earth space, Roscosmos said in a news release. The Russian state corporation underscored that data indicates the debris may pose a potential threat to all operating spacecraft, including Roscosmos' geostationary orbital cluster. Analysis of the pieces' trajectory suggested that the breakup of the satellite was "instantaneous and high-energy," Roscosmos said.
According to Eismont, the Intelsat 33e is an older model satellite that uses heptyl, or unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine (UDMH) as fuel.
“This is a chemical compound that is primarily used as a rocket propellant. Possibly something went wrong with the propulsion system. While this can happen, this is an extremely rare case,” he noted.
“Fortunately, satellites with chemical components are no longer used that often, with modern devices now using xenon fuel, which is not explosive,” Dr. Eismont clarified.
When speaking of the closeness of Intelsat 33e to Russia’s constellation, Eismont pointed out that there are specific rules for assigning slots for satellites.
“They are all practically in the same circular orbit at a height of 36,000 kilometers above the Earth's surface. They all rotate around our planet at the speed of the Earth's own rotation. For communications satellites, positions in geostationary orbit around the equator are allocated by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). It also allocates frequencies, after which the operators, including from our country, deliver a satellite to that slot. When the service life of the device ends it is removed from this orbit. This is also a standard procedure so as not to interfere with other satellites. Quite possibly, this particular slot opened up and Russian devices were placed there,” speculated the pundit.
Eismont ruled out a worst-case scenario occurring, which would result in the loss of all satellites in retrograde geostationary orbit.
"It's not as bad as it might seem. It's important that the fragments didn't hit anything right after the explosion. Since the debris received different impulses during the breakup, they are not in this specific orbit, but are definitely crossing it, which is unpleasant. But the fragments can be expected to leave the areas that pose a danger overtime," the expert noted.
Until that happens, however, there is a lingering threat, he acknowledged, adding:
"The geostationary orbit is one of the most overcrowded... wherever you fly, there is a risk that you will collide with some apparatus if you cross this orbit. So the possibility of encountering other apparatuses, unfortunately, is not excluded."
The mishap with the Boeing-designed satellite adds to the string of woes that have battered the plane maker’s reputation and finances. Since the worldwide grounding of its 737 Max aircraft in 2019/2020 in the wake of crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia, the embattled company has faced a litany of setbacks, and is currently under scrutiny over aircraft safety.