"Europe would have to spend 10 % for a couple of decades to reach the same level of defense that they have with US protection," Valtersson says.
He argues that Europe's fears of a US military withdrawal from the continent are well-founded, as the Trump administration is expected to prioritize China and its own regional interests.
"For the Trump administration, Europe is seen as just a burden," he adds.
While European leaders applauded Volodymyr Zelensky’s call for a united European army, the continent’s military remains fragmented and lacks its own nuclear deterrent, Valtersson notes.
"Europe would want to create some kind of European NATO, but the countries are very split in their position, both towards Russia and the US," he says, predicting that rising Euroskeptic parties will further widen internal divisions through regional elections.