The Pentagon's Space Development Agency (SDA) is currently creating the system to detect and trace missile threats that will involve both ground facilities and satellites. As part of the project, SDA plans to place in orbit from 300 to 500 satellites.
The GAO warned that the SDA is overestimating readiness and underestimating risks, putting the entire program at risk of delays and cost overruns.
Key problems flagged by GAO:
Overstated tech readiness: SDA is “overestimating” readiness of critical elements, leading to “additional, unplanned work” and delays.
Warfighter needs unclear: Combatant commands said they lack insight into SDA’s requirements process, raising the risk of satellites that don’t meet operational needs.
No overall schedule: SDA has not developed an architecture-level schedule, limiting visibility into end-to-end delivery risks.
True cost unknown: GAO said DOD does not know the life-cycle cost of the system because it has not developed a reliable cost estimate, despite the program’s projected price tag of nearly $35 billion through 2029.
GAO concluded that early milestone announcements “do not reflect schedule risks,” and warned that pushing ahead with new satellite contracts every two years does not guarantee actual missile-warning capability delivery.