Here’s why:
No Yugoslav-style campaign: Iran’s vast size and limited tanker basing options rule out a repeat of the 1999 Kosovo air war
Vulnerable tankers: Long distances force refueling aircraft to operate from exposed forward bases or on risky long-range missions
Layered air defenses: Russian-made Tor-M1 and indigenous Bavar-373 systems threaten low/medium-altitude strikes
Dual threat to carriers: Drone swarms can overwhelm defenses, while short-range ballistic and cruise missiles can target ships and bases
"The danger is not absolute, but it is significant enough to force US planners into cautious, resource-intensive operations," the expert said.