MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Andrei Ilyashenko.) The only possible outcome of President Putin's forthcoming visit to Japan is a confirmation of Russia's firm stand on the issue of the Northern Territories.
The pre-talks balance is very simple. Japan wants Russia to confirm that the four Kuril Islands are the subject of a territorial dispute and their ownership is negotiable, as stated in the 1993 Tokyo Declaration, the product of Yeltsin's amenable diplomats. The Japanese text of the declaration allows Tokyo to claim that the only unsettled issue is the procedure of turning the islands over to Japan and that their ownership by Japan is unquestionable.
An official confirmation of this wording at the November 20-21 talks between President Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi would prove that Tokyo continues to insist on the return of the islands. In other words, it would show that Japan is moving towards a declared foreign policy objective. Procrastination or a retreat from this path would effectively bury the career of any Japanese politician or diplomat. The purge in the Russian section of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan three years ago is graphic proof of this.
The Russian president has voiced his stand on the issue more than once. He said during the September 28 call-in television show that the 1956 Declaration was the only legal basis for Russo-Japanese relations. It officially ended the state of war between the Soviet Union and Japan, while Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev pledged to turn over 17% of the disputed territories to Japan (Shikotan and Habomai) after the signing of a full-scale peace treaty.
The document does not specify when this has to be done or on what terms. In addition, it is the only Russo-Japanese treaty ratified by the two parliaments, registered with the UN and hence binding on both sides.
At the moment, nothing has to be done at all. There is no peace treaty, therefore no grounds exist for the transfer of territories or discussions on the future of the two other islands. And Moscow has no interest in these discussions anyway.
Strengthening the country's sovereignty is a key aspect of the Kremlin's policy, as territorial and border problems alarm the public and Russia no longer needs - and is unlikely to need in the future - Japan's financial assistance on political terms.
Russia's Ambassador to Japan Alexander Losyukov said recently that there would be no progress regarding the peace treaty (which also means the territorial dispute) in the next ten years. The Japanese press reports Presidential Aide Sergei Prikhodko as saying that Putin's visit would not produce a political document mentioning the territorial problem in any way.
So, it is clear that no progress is to be expected on this problem. But what about an illusion of progress?
Shortly before Putin's visit, the Japanese media reported rumors about the possibility of dialogue on the joint economic development of the disputed territories. Some media say that the offer was made by Moscow, while others claim that it is Tokyo's initiative. But the two countries' officials are unanimous, which is a rare event in itself: the proposal has not been made and the issue is not on the agenda.
It seems, this time "No" means "No," but the grounds for illusions continue to be raised. Japanese quality newspapers write on the subject citing unnamed sources.
These leaks can only cause irritation in Moscow. Since Russia has assumed a harsh diplomatic tone recently, we can expect the Russian delegation in Tokyo to take an uncompromising stand. There is no place for illusions in Russia's political dialogue with Japan any longer.
