ESTONIA
The media have extensively covered the oil-and-gas conflict between Russia and Belarus. They have accused Moscow of being an unreliable partner for the West. "Russia's squabble with Belarus over oil and interruption in supplies to Europe have dealt one more blow at Moscow's prestige as a supplier of energy" (Parnu Postimees, January 10). "Brussels and other major EU capitals have realized that in a situation where the European Union imports about half of its energy, the reforms of the energy sector cannot remain the EU's domestic affair, all the more so now that Russia, the main supplier, demonstrates its unreliability with a year's interval as if on purpose" (Eesti Paevaleht, January 11).
Correspondents have been trying to predict Moscow's potential reaction to Germany's proposal to ban Nazi symbols and the denial of the Holocaust all EU countries. They are worried that if it becomes law, Moscow may use it for its political ends. "One can imagine how much oil this EU law banning Nazi symbols and Holocaust denial will pour on Moscow's propaganda flames. The Kremlin has already accused Estonia of extolling Nazism, and now Russian politicians will receive at least political support from Brussels" (Postimees, January 16).
LATVIA
The press has focused on Russian hydrocarbon supplies to Europe through Belarusian pipelines. Analysts are warning about the risks of considerable cuts in Russian gas supplies to European consumers by 2010. "Moscow wants to control all gas transportation routes from the Caspian region to Europe in order to dictate its terms both to Asian gas exporters and European gas consumers" (Dienas bizness, January 3). "Gasprom's showdowns with CIS countries are diverting the European energy industry from a much more important question - the prospect of a serious shortage of Russian gas supplies by 2010... The downswing of (Gazprom's) old deposits, and lack of investment into new ones jeopardize supplies in the future. Europe will not receive billions of cubic meters of gas" (Telegraf, January 3).
LITHUANIA
The media are emphasizing the impudence of Russia's policy -- its readiness to sacrifice any friendly or contractual relations to here-and-now gains. "Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to turn Belarus into an insolvent debtor. A brief account of a multi-stage operation...ostensibly contrived by Putin is as follows: either Belarus conducts, of its free will, a referendum on its inclusion into Russia and introduction of the Russian ruble, or it will be compelled to do this (under pressure of economic sanctions)" (Lietuvos rytas, January 13). "In the EU eyes, Belarus is a victim of brutal blackmail. Now applying any economic sanctions against Belarus is almost the same as joining the Kremlin's policy" (Respublika, January 3).
Journalists are calling 2006 the year of Russia's gas aggression. The Baltic countries' EU partners are called upon to look for alternative energy sources. "The new power struggle between Russia with its enormous oil and gas profits, and the West with its feeble will, will start in the very beginning of the new year. The great battle will take place on the energy field alone. The Baltic nations and Poland are trying to diversify their energy suppliers. For Russia this will not be a big obstacle - its wealthy energy communities will obviate it by buying energy supply companies in Europe. Even ex-communist countries will not be able to resist the temptation of special contracts with Russia (Verslo zinios, January 4).
UKRAINE
The bulk of the publications believe that the Belarusian fuel war and the Moscow-Kiev gas clash a year ago are similar only on the surface. The media believe that Russia has not simply initiated the oil clash, but deliberately provoked Belarus into a counteroffensive. "If Russia really wanted to gradually transfer its relations with Belarus to market principles, it would be content with its gas victory, and could postpone the oil issue until next year... But Moscow offered Lukashenko such patently unacceptable terms that he could not even think of accepting them because all Russia wanted was a row and a demonstrative whipping of Minsk. If Belarus had swallowed new oil terms after the gas ones, Moscow would have found some other excuse for a squabble" (Oligarkh.net, January 9).
The press has focused on revealing Moscow's motives in the conflict. "The row with Belarus was supposed to be a wake-up call for foreign investors to make them put their money into Russia's export pipelines" (Versii, January 10). "As far as gas is concerned, the reason is the attempt to gain control of the Belarusian transit pipe... The Druzhba pipeline may be shut down to curb a decline in global oil prices... A continuous flow of petrodollars is vital for the dynamic Russian economy and for numerous high-ranking Russian bureaucrats that are making their fortunes on it" (Podrobnosti, January 9).
Some sources are convinced that the squabble between Moscow and Minsk is a prelude to a new round of tensions in Russian-Ukrainian dialogue, and stronger pressure from the Kremlin. "The Ukrainians should prepare for the worst. Russian foreign policy is very good at destabilizing neighboring countries (UNIAN, January 5). "The current attack against Belarus... is just a training session before an assault against Ukraine... After completing the ‘privatization' of Belarusian (gas and oil) mains, Russia will try to gain control of the same infrastructure in Ukraine" (Ukraine daily, January 11).
ARMENIA
The media are extensively covering a report that Iran is ready to supply Armenia with gas, but the latter is not yet ready to receive it. Commentators are attributing to Moscow's pressure the lack of Armenia's interest in the use of gas from the Iran-Armenian pipeline, which was only recently considered a good alternative to Russian supplies. The media are writing that Armenia has lost on this issue - the Kremlin continues to control its energy industry. "Apparently, Russia has made it clear to Armenia that it will not receive Iranian gas from the pipeline laid from Kadzharan to the Ararat Valley, in which ArmRosgazprom owns 60%... Armenia is showing understanding for the whims of its strategic partner, Russia, which is raising gas prices and keeping a monopoly on the Armenian energy market. How long will it continue doing so and putting at risk the trust of neighboring Iran?" (Aravot, January 11). "Now the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline looks somewhat different from a couple of months ago. Before it could be considered an element of our energy security in perspective, whereas now it is a symbol of Armenia's vulnerability and dependence on the ‘powers that be'" (Golos Armenii, January 16).
GEORGIA
Commentators believe that Russia has again confirmed its reputation of an unreliable supplier of energy resources, which is not averse to outright blackmail. "Russia's already tarnished reputation as energy supplier has again been called into doubt in the eyes of its Western partners ... It has become clear once more what danger Russia's energy blackmail presents not only for its next-door neighbors but also for West Europe. As for the reputation of ‘Europe's last dictator' Alexander Lukashenko, he has nothing to lose. He uses Russia's own language of blackmail in response" (24 saati, January 10).
AZERBAIJAN
The press is focused on the deterioration of relations between Baku and Moscow. "The situation in Russia in 2006 was distinguished by some major features, which were important for Azerbaijan as well... Russia's role in the post-Soviet space is changing - the policy of equality is being replaced with rigorous pragmatism and a desire to secure its political and economic interests to the utmost... Thus, having encountered Russia's unjustifiably tough course on energy issues and new migration policy, Azerbaijan will most probably have to adjust its foreign policy priorities as regards its northern neighbor" (Zerkalo, January 9).
At the same time, experts believe that Russia is not likely to take part in potential attempts to overthrow Ilham Aliyev. "No matter how much the Russian government might be displeased with Aliyev, it understands perfectly well that today his only alternative is the current Azerbaijani opposition, with which Moscow will never find a common language. The pro-Russian forces in Azerbaijan are not so strong... Russia is not capable of toppling the government in Azerbaijan... Russia does not have a chance to replace Aliyev with a puppet" (Eni Musavat, January 12).
Commentators are explaining the suspension of Azerbaijani oil transportation through Russian territory on the Baku-Novorossiisk route as a response to Russia's political and economic pressure. "Contrary to Moscow's desire, Azerbaijan is getting ready to be an alternative supplier of gas to Europe, giving cheap gas to Georgia, and supporting Western initiatives on gas transportation from Central Asia to Europe bypassing Russia. All these steps have enraged Moscow because it does not want to lose its monopoly on energy supplies to Europe" (Eni Musavat, January 10).
KAZAKHSTAN
The media are pegging big hopes on Germany's EU Presidency. Commentators believe that now Germany is particularly interested in Kazakhstan as an energy supplier, which could replace Russia. Astana expects Germany to give it political support in nominating Kazakhstan for the OSCE Presidency, and to step up the construction of the Nabucco gas pipeline bypassing Russia. Kazakhstan is hoping to play a key role in operating this pipeline. "The signing of Kazakh-European memo took place against the background of energy tensions between Russia and the West. The U.S. and some European countries are increasingly talking about Moscow's energy dictate as a new powerful and effective geopolitical instrument. In this context, European countries are calling into doubt Russia's reliability as their number one energy supplier." "The West has fully grasped Kazakhstan's desire to have as many alternative routes for energy transportation as possible, even despite close strategic partnership with Russia. Gazprom may interfere with the implementation of this project - it is going to set up a southern gas circle around the Blue Stream in order to supply gas to the south of Europe. Earlier, the same Blue Stream made the construction of a trans-Caspian pipeline a not-so-promising venture. But, judging by all, the West is ready to opt for it because of its current energy differences with Russia" (Liter.kz, January 11).
TAJIKISTAN
The press is criticizing Russian society for repeating the mistakes of the Soviet past -- the propaganda of the national idea, which is bordering on outright nationalism. "Why are hundreds of corpses sent from Russia to Tajikistan every year? Some of them died not because of disease or old age but from the hands of Russians that consider them second-rate people. Why is nobody doing anything about this orgy of nationalism?... In the Soviet years, there was no freedom, and the less freedom people had, the less they hated each other... Today Russians are repeating the mistakes of the Soviet past - they are melting from their own national idea, and treating their neighbors with arrogance" (Farazh, January 11).
