ESTONIA
Journalists believe that Moscow's decision to suspend its participation in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) poses a threat to Estonia and Russia's other neighbors.
"In theory, Russia can now fill the entire border area with weapons." (Eesti Paevaleht, July 16).
Commentators are convinced that "this muscle-flexing will continue, even though the Russian policymakers will never realize their dream of regaining their former sphere of influence." (Postimees, July 16).
The press is discussing the visit to Estonia by German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who lashed out at the new European Union members, Estonia included, for their failure to build constructive relations with Russia.
He said: "...the new EU members are obstructing the improvement of relations with Russia and are giving the large EU members reason to conduct their own independent policy towards it." (Eesti Paevaleht, July 12).
The press is commenting on the first International Festival of Finno-Ugric Cultures in Saransk. The Finnish and Hungarian prime ministers were invited, but their Estonian counterpart was not.
"Tarja Halonen and Ferenc Gyurcsany should realize that their meeting with Vladimir Putin will bring them only fleeting benefits and will weaken their own claims to solidarity with the EU. Once EU unity is undermined, this may happen again and again." (Postimees, July 11).
LATVIA
The press is divided over Russia's decision to suspend its participation in the CFE Treaty.
Some newspapers believe that "...withdrawal from the treaty is part of the election campaign - it sends the message that Putin can ensure Russia's security." (Telegraf, July 16).
Others claim that "Russia's decision should be a warning to its Western partners who want to ignore Moscow and pack the Old World with their weapons... Moscow believes that 'friendly' Baltic nations may also be tempted to arm themselves, following in the footsteps of the Czech Republic and Poland. In order to sober these countries, as well as U.S. and NATO leaders, the Russian president decided to quit the CFE Treaty." (Vesti Segodnya, July 16).
In the wake of the decision by the Russian State Duma's international affairs committee to submit the Latvian-Russian border treaty for ratification by the whole parliament, journalists are making forecasts for its future: "The agreement is in for an ordeal. The entire Duma election campaign may take on an anti-Baltic tinge. The pro-Putin United Russia party can come up with some global program on the defense of compatriots, which will guarantee the ratification of the border treaty." (Telegraf, July 11).
LITHUANIA
The press believes that Gazprom's desire to take part in the construction of power-generating facilities in western Lithuania and to occupy the niche that will be vacated after the closure of the Visaginas nuclear power plant in 2009 is a political issue, a fact which reduces its chances of success: "Since the demand for energy in the Baltic countries is high and Hungary is already trying to move in, the [gas] monopoly will have a hard time competing for it." (Sugardas.lt, July 11).
The statement by Russian presidential aide Sergei Yastrzhembsky to the effect that it would make no sense to repair the Druzhba pipeline has confirmed the apprehensions of Lithuanian experts who predicted that Russia would not resume its supplies to Mazeikiu Nafta for political reasons.
"I don't think that the pipeline had any technical problems - it must have suffered from 'political' problems. The Druzhba pipeline will not resume operation unless policymakers decide it is in their interest." (Egidijus Vareikis, member of parliament, Kauno Dena, July 12).
KAZAKHSTAN
The media is speculating about who will be the Kremlin's nominee for the presidential elections in March 2008.
"All of the national media have been long discussing only one subject: who will run for the presidency, [Sergei] Ivanov or [Dmitri] Medvedev?... [Garry] Kasparov and [Mikhail] Kasyanov, representatives of the Russian opposition... have not even been mentioned - they have been pushed out of the limelight.... The situation would be quite different if there was only one official nominee. Then the voters would pay attention to other, real opponents of the current government." (Zona.kz, July 15).
The media are concerned about the West's policy towards Central Asia. Analysts believe that the West's mistakes are allowing Russia and China to occupy Europe's place in the region.
"The worst case scenario for Europe would be Russia's cooperation with Central Asia developing into a gas OPEC or an energy club under the auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In that case, it would be virtually impossible to compete with Moscow on Europe's energy market." (Gazeta.kz, July 11).
UZBEKISTAN
The opposition media are warning Russian oil and gas companies about political risks in Uzbekistan.
"In a bid to build up energy production in Uzbekistan, Russia is ignoring the risks that Western companies considered even when their relations with that country were at their peak.... Russian companies, which account for more than half of all foreign investment in Uzbekistan's oil and gas sector, may well face a change in the rules if the government alters its political course. Nobody can guarantee that Tashkent will not kick out the Russian companies or force them into bankruptcy, as happened with Britain's Oxus Gold and America's Newmont Mining." (Musulmansky Uzbekistan, July 11).
Analysts are commenting on the revival of Russia's economic might, which helps the Kremlin to strengthen its political influence.
"The stable energy requirements of Europe and former Soviet republics have enabled Russia to create a unique system of mutual commitments. The majority of its neighbors... have found themselves entangled by Russia's gas pipelines.... The EU has proved to be totally unable to find common ground with Russia and has become a burden for those of its members that have become friendly with it. The policy of Germany and Italy is very indicative in this case.... If Brussels does not find a constructive approach to Moscow, it may lose some of its key members." (Vesti.uz, July 17).
TURKMENISTAN
The press is discussing Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov's foreign policy in the context of his visit to China. Experts believe that he is sending mixed signals.
"Turkmenistan must be realistic in its desire to supply gas to different markets. Right now, it seems to be double-dealing and staging a poorly orchestrated PR campaign intended for both foreign and domestic consumption. By shaking the hand of his latest interlocutor, Berdymukhammedov is saying, as it were: "I don't trust you, Mr. Putin (or Aliyev, Karzai, Nazarbayev or Karimov) and that's why I'll sell gas to different countries.... The Turkmen authorities could not care less about the fact that by doing this they are ruining their country's reputation." (Gundogar, July 11).
TAJIKISTAN
The intricate political, trade and economic relations that have taken shape in the Moscow-Tashkent-Dushanbe triangle have prompted the media to publish materials discrediting Russian-Uzbek cooperation.
"The editors have obtained documents testifying to rather difficult economic relations between Russia and Uzbekistan. They have called into doubt the tale of dynamic and effective bilateral cooperation, which is being spread by high-ranking officials of both countries for the man in the street.... Although a letter from the Russian Embassy to the local Foreign Ministry sounds very polite, it makes it obvious that Moscow's Central Asian partner is totally insolvent financially and has failed to abide by its commitments...." (Asia-Plus, July 12).
The press is drawing the public's attention to the uncertain future of the Rogun hydropower station.
"It seems that the Rogun dam was the most difficult item on the agenda. Talks with RusAl, the main investor, have been in a deadlock for quite some time. Unofficial sources are reporting that now the Russian government, rather than a private company, will sign an agreement on the Rogun dam, which is currently being drafted in Moscow." (Asia-Plus, July 12).
BELARUS
The opposition media are critical of a Russian-Belorussian agreement to develop a space system in Belarus.
"The agreement provides for the construction of a space system - a space vehicle and a national system for receiving and processing information," said Mikhail Myasnikovich, chairman of the Presidium of the National Academy of Sciences, adding that even Russia does not yet have such a system.
"There are two possible explanations: either our space industry is marching ahead at an incredible speed, or we are being fooled with space prospects because some people want to justify multi-million-dollar expenditures - according to official estimates, the system will have a price tag of $20 million." (Solidarnost, July 13).
Discussing bilateral relations, opposition media analysts are predicting "economic slavery" for Belarus in the near future.
"The 'union with Russia' was a good idea.... In the last few years, the Kremlin has been doing nothing but 'privatizing profits and nationalizing losses.' Recently, Belarus has inflicted a massive amount of losses on Russia. Annexing it outright would be a difficult task. But there is another option: Russia could buy it at a dumping price and resell to the Americans at a handsome profit." (Nashe mneniye, July 13).
UKRAINE
The press is extensively covering a bill to censure the bilateral agreement on radars rented by Russia in Ukraine, which has been submitted to the Russian State Duma. The media are writing that Moscow is trying to ignore Kiev's demands for higher pay and deprive its partner of a potential trump card in the forthcoming gas dialogue.
"Ukrainian radars are Russia's 'big ear' on the border with NATO, and Russia may not find it easy to give them up. Ukraine can still exploit the rent issue.... In reaction to having to pay a market price for gas, Ukraine can unilaterally deny the lease to its 'dear partner.'" (Gazeta po-kievsky, July 12).
At the same time, the media are underscoring a paradox. "Ukraine, which is dreaming of becoming a NATO member, is leasing radars to a state that is actively criticizing the North Atlantic alliance. NATO is not likely to welcome such a 'mole.'" (Gazeta po-kievsky, July 12).
MOLDOVA
Commentators believe that one of the reasons for Russia's decision to quit the CFE Treaty was its desire to keep its troops and military hardware in Transdnestr.
"Russia's withdrawal from the CFE Treaty will not resolve the conflict over conventional weapons in Europe and will by no means help find a settlement in Transdnestr. Thus, the situation as such is becoming unpleasant, while Moldova is falling victim to it." (Moldova Azi, July 16).
ARMENIA
The press has concentrated on the main subject of the Azerbaijani-American consultations in Washington - Russia's proposal on the joint use of the Gabala radar. Commentators believe that the United States and Azerbaijan may reach an agreement, leaving Russia out.
"Washington believes it is very important to discuss Gabala and other issues with Azerbaijan directly in order to leave out Russia in the future." (Hayots-Ashkar, July 14).
Experts believe that the United States is trying to persuade the region's countries to stop cooperating with Russia and join NATO. American forecasts give reason to believe that "Azerbaijan will tear us to pieces if we continue military-technical cooperation with Russia; and Iran will take over Baku sooner or later if Azerbaijan continues two-timing with the U.S. and Russia.... It appears that we will have to ask the United States for military help as soon as possible." (Hayots-Ashkar, July 14).
GEORGIA
The media are commenting on a statement by South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity about the possibility of terrorist attacks on Georgia. Practically all observers are unanimous in believing that that his aggressive statements are inspired by the Kremlin.
"[In South Ossetia] we are dealing not with a government elected by the people but with outright international terrorism.... Without the permission of the Russian authorities Kokoity would not have made such a statement." (Rezonansi, July 12).
The media are commenting extensively on a statement by Kremlin property manager Vladimir Kozhin to the effect that the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict will not interfere with the Olympic Games in Sochi. The Georgian media interpret his words as a promise to settle the situation in Abkhazia prior to 2014.
"The recent statement by the representative of the Russian presidential staff contradicts what Russian official sources have said up to now, notably, that a full settlement of the conflict in Abkhazia is a complicated and time-consuming undertaking. This time, Moscow has set a deadline for it: 2014." (24 saati, July 14).
Experts maintain that Russia's attitude to the conflicts in Georgia is slowly but steadily changing for the better.
"Russia is not seeking to recognize their independence. It does not need these territories. They are no more than a pretext for exerting pressure on Georgia." (Akhali Taoba, July 12).
AZERBAIJAN
The press is worried that having quit the CFE Treaty, Russia may supply Armenia with more weapons.
"There is a Russian military base in Armenia, and the number of arms there exceeds the CFE Treaty-imposed limits by many times. Russia's withdrawal from the CFE Treaty paves the way for a higher concentration of forces and weapons along the borders with Azerbaijan and Georgia." (Eni Musavat, July 17).
In the wake of Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov's visit to Washington, the press is writing that Azerbaijan has finally joined the ranks of the international anti-Russian opposition.
"This may provoke a negative reaction from Moscow. It may wish to put more pressure on Azerbaijan, but its only levers are the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the assistance it gives to Armenia in general." (Zerkalo, July 13).
RIA Novosti is not responsible for the content of outside sources.
