This follows from the Bank of Russia's recent report on the number of fake banknotes in circulation. A chance to get a bogus bill is miniscule. The current bills are so well protected that their forgery is becoming too much of a hassle. Despite the high money supply growth, the number of notes identified as fake was consistently small in the last 18 months.
The Bank of Russia has revealed some tell-tale information about the number and ratio of forged money. In the last 12 months, from July 1, 2006 to July 1, 2007, money supply in Russia went up by more than 36%, from 2.4 trillion to 3.3 trillion rubles. The number of withdrawn fake banknotes remained the same - 24,000-28,000 in a quarter year, which means that their share in the general cash turnover declined substantially.
But we should not lose our vigilance. The 1,000-ruble banknote is the absolute leader among counterfeit bills, amounting to about 90% of all fakes. In 2006, 93,300 one-thousand ruble notes were identified as fake and the relevant figure for the first half of 2007 was 47,200. These banknotes are the most common and can buy pretty much. Strange as it may seem, but the runner-up is not the 500-ruble note but the 100-ruble bill - in the last year and a half, 7,700 of these were withdrawn from circulation, as compared to 6,300 for five hundreds.
Five thousand ruble notes are total outcasts. They are reluctantly accepted in shops and not popular with forgers. Highly protected and rare, they attract much more attention than any others. In 2006, only seven fakes were withdrawn and none in the first half of 2007.
One more positive trend, which follows from the Bank of Russia report, is an obvious decline in the number of fake foreign notes. In the first half of 2007 their number went down by more than 20%, up to 4,765. The stronger ruble is obviously ousting genuine foreign banknotes from circulation. But dollar fakes are still the most widespread all over the world. In Russia, bogus dollars amount to about 95% of all fake foreign notes.
To sum up, forgers cannot threaten us with destabilization, but inflation does remain a problem. A steady growth in the circulation of genuine Bank of Russia notes, which are being issued commensurately with the incoming petrodollars, keeps pushing all prices up. Economists are predicting that this year official inflation will exceed the government's expectations - about 9% - while the real figure will jump to 20%.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
