MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Dmitry Kosyrev) - There is a superstition against making forthright predictions lest they never become true.
Say, "the two Koreas will certainly reunite someday," and you will be bombarded with no end of arguments on their incompatibility; the North and South Korean modes of life are poles apart, to say nothing of their economies.
Conversely, saying "never the twain shall meet," is likely to provoke an avalanche of truisms along the lines of "never say never," and "difficult does not mean impossible," even though "the road may be long, and the going tough."
Tellingly, there is no mention of reunification in the official information for the second inter-Korean summit, being held in Pyongyang. Nonetheless, other optimistic noises are plentiful.
South Korean sources have reported President Roh Moo-hyun walked across the demarcation line that has divided the peninsular for half a century saying that he hopes ever more people will follow.
The South Korean media also say that news can be expected, Wednesday, on finally concluding a peace treaty to end the war of 1950-1953 - though it is unlikely such a treaty could be signed as early as October 3. The summit will also discuss military confidence building and prospects for a united economic environment.
In fact, all this boils down to one thing - integration; and integration is a synonym of merging or, why don't we say it, reunification.
When I met South Korean experts and officials in the late 1990s, they were quite explicit about Seoul's attitude to building economic bridges with the North. Several South Korean agencies and offices are currently making in-depth studies of the possibilities, with visits to Germany to learn from its trying reunification process in the 1990s.
Time is the keyword here. The South thinks integration would take 50 years if it took the most benign road. More rapid integration could take a mere 20 years, though it might have disastrous consequences. Reunification would demand generous investment in a great many projects to develop the North's infrastructure.
There is also the human factor to be considered - rapid change will come as a shock to many and may have unpredictable consequences. The huge project could produce an economic giant with a population of 80-90 million.
South Korea's annual GDP currently stands at $888 billion - roughly two fifths of China's, nearly one third of Japan's, and one thirteenth of America's - and is growing at 5% a year. Electronic and engineering goods account for a half of GDP. The country is among world leaders for technical innovation and industrial design.
The North Korean economy also has something to offer - comparatively high educational standards, which promise quick training of a workforce that is accustomed to token earnings. This combination of cheap skilled labor and technological innovation could offer lucrative joint development opportunities. If the initial impetus provided by such development could generate enough wealth, the North, which currently suffers from eye-watering commodity shortages, could become an excellent consumer market.
Proceeding from current events, one can also forecast the political role of a reunited Korea in the world. It would be a headache for Japan, which already has problems with both Korean states, and a good partner for Russia and China (the latter already economically dominates both the Korean North and South).
As for the United States, it would have no problems with a united Korea, provided Washington maintains a reasonable policy. But then, a united Korea would behave even more independently than Seoul today. On the whole, the integration would further enhance the Asian states' growing role in the world - since tensions on the Korean Peninsular may be regarded as the region's only time bomb.
By sheer chance, the inter-Korean summit coincides with another round of the six-way talks on North Korea's nuclear program in Beijing. Both events have been postponed several times, so they cannot have been deliberately coordinated. Still, there is symbolism in the coincidence.
The future of Korea is under discussion in Pyongyang, while the Beijing talks concern something fast receding into the past. Mere technicalities are all that stand in the way of an agreement on the North Korean nuclear problem. This will finally settle a question that emerged during George W. Bush's presidency and put a brake on nascent North Korean economic reforms, thus hampering Korean integration. Now, those efforts may be resumed. Only then will Asia - and the world with it - will see realignment.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
