It was not difficult to predict his victory on April 13-14, but its scale was unexpected. On the eve of the elections he declared, "Italians will choose nobody but me. The only thing, which I request from them, is to give me a majority of at least 20 mandates in the Senate." Apparently, Italians are sick and tired of center-left politicians -- they gave him almost twice the advantage.
In the Chamber of Deputies, his center-right coalition received 101 more seats than its main rival -- the center-left bloc of the former Mayor of Rome Walter Veltroni. In the meantime, experts predicted that Berlusconi would win with a minor advantage.
Incidentally, Russian President Vladimir Putin will be the first leader to personally congratulate Berlusconi on his victory. He has long-standing friendship with the Italian prime minister. In 2005, they attended the inauguration of the Blue Stream gas pipeline together. On April 15, the Kremlin reported that Putin will see Berlusconi on Sardinia on April 17-18 after his visit to Libya. They will discuss bilateral cooperation and its prospects.
Berlusconi has always been and will continue to be a pragmatic politician on the world scene. Russia has far-reaching plans with Italy. In 2008 or 2009, Gazprom and the Italian energy giant ENI intend to launch the South Stream project, which will continue the Blue Stream and connect the Big Pipe with Italy's south, and may reach Israel and North Africa from there. The pipe's capacity will be up to 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year.
The votes of Italians who were abroad were not yet counted by April 15, but it is already clear that they can only add mandates for 71 year-old Berlusconi who will become prime minister for a third time. His previous cabinet (2001-2006) was in power for five years - a record for the entire post-war history. Now Berlusconi has been given one more nickname - Highlander because of this record, face lifts, hair transplants, and fake youthful looks. But the center-left opposition is mortified that he will live a political life as those immortals in the movie of the same name. One of its representatives said, "The nightmare is just in the offing - we have five years of Berlusconi ahead."
Berlusconi will have a majority in both chambers of parliament, and the number of parties in the two main coalitions has been reduced to five (before there were well over 20). These facts are also unprecedented. It would be premature to say that Italy has made a step toward a bipartisan system, but in a way they are moving in the right direction. This is not post-crisis hangover staggering, but a desire to get rid of the endemic Italian sin - permanent government crises. The new government will be the 62nd in the past 63 years.
Berlusconi is guaranteed a majority in parliament, but no one can guess for how long he will be friends with his allies in the coalition. The new cabinet has inherited difficult economic problems. Although Berlusconi has won Italy back, he is not likely to be comfortable with it in the next five years. Experts at home, in the European Union (EU), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are unanimous that Italy's economy, finances, and its overregulated business and financial legislation require drastic reforms.
Italy is now lagging behind all EU countries. The IMF predicts a mere 0.3% economic growth for Italy this year as compared to the average 1.5% for 15 EU members. In order to cure Italy, Berlusconi will have to sharply reduce state expenses, eliminate the EU's largest national debt, reform legislation, carry out capital repairs of infrastructure, clean up garbage in Naples, and save the defunct national airline Alitalia.
These tasks require huge funding, and it will be next to impossible for Berlusconi to honor his election pledges - reduce taxes and the national debt, and at the same time increase subsidies for the poor (three times more than Veltroni promised).
Evil tongues are saying that he is not going to do anything of the sort. Enrico Rusconi, a professor of political science at the University of Turin, said, "His previous cabinet of 2001-2006 did not fulfill a single election pledge, although it enjoyed a comfortable majority as well. In the Senate, he will completely depend on the right-wing, populist, and extremely protectionist League of the North, which is a member of his coalition with 25 mandates. One step to the side and Berlusconi may lose a Senate majority." In 1994, this league withdrew from the coalition, and brought about his cabinet's downfall.
For the time being, everyone is waiting to see how Il Cavaliere will start his new marriage with Italy, and whether the country was seduced for nothing, as happened so many times before.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
