ESTONIA
The media are writing that the recent cabinet reshuffle has reduced the role of the "siloviki" and increased the weight of liberal-minded experts. At the same time, the changes are seen as minor. "The gist of the cabinet reshuffle is the transfer of Kremlin officials to the Putin government, and the other way round... A new system of decision-making has emerged... It is not dominated by any side - neither the Kremlin, nor the government controls it... Economists will play a slightly bigger role in the government, because Kudrin has kept his seat, and the economist Shuvalov has become first deputy prime minister alongside former Prime Minister Zubkov - earlier Sechin, who represents the 'siloviki,' had been expected to occupy this position... This means that Russia will continue its current economic course." (Eesti Paevaleht, May 14)
"Almost all the leaders from among the "siloviki" have lost their influence, or been demoted. At the same time, top government officials who are considered rather liberal have... kept their seats or ... been appointed to higher positions." (Eesti Paevaleht, May 17)
Experts believe that the Estonian government's thoughtless transfer of the Bronze Soldier war memorial has caused another chill in relations with Russia and had a negative impact on the volume of Russian through traffic, which plays a major role in Estonia's economic prosperity. "Chairman of the Council of the Port of Sillamaa T. Vahi said that a sharp decline in consumption... and the republic's wrongful conduct towards Russia are impeding the Estonian economy... He added that productive cooperation with Russia is impossible if Estonia keeps permanently insulting... its eastern neighbor." (Delfi.ee, May 15)
"After restoration of Estonia's independence we had very good relations with Russia. So, what happened? The advent of a bronze night... We have ports with the best possible infrastructure and wonderful professionals who can work in difficult conditions. But we are engaged in hostile rhetoric towards Russia, which only nurtures the Russian radicals." (Aripaev, May 16)
LATVIA
Most newspapers view Russia as a state with which Latvia is bound to have close ties, primarily in the economy. In the event of confrontation with Russia, the West is seen as an ally but not at all a completely reliable guarantor. "The information and propaganda war between Georgia and Russia has become a difficult issue for European policymakers. Once again, there has emerged a gap between those Europeans who do not want to spoil relations with Moscow, and those who want... quick integration of this Caucasian state with the West. Latvia has found itself in-between these positions. On the one hand, it wants to make cooperation with the EU countries one of its foreign policy priorities, but on the other, it is afraid to take resolute action for fear of displeasing Russia." (Diena, May 15)
Some publications are advising the authorities to ease policy towards non-Letts in order to improve relations with Russia. "Many [non-Letts] have taken offense with good reason - in the 1990s they supported Latvia's independence, whereas now they have become non-citizens. The government should take a step forward to non-citizens, and give them the right to take part in municipal elections, which will make them more loyal to Latvia. Latvia should understand that there is no alternative to Russian gas." (Nedelia, May 14)
Russian-language publications are worried about the sorry plight of WWII veterans. "SS legionnaires receive benefits because they were oppressed by the Soviet government. Former 'forest brothers' are also get an allowance on top of their pensions - they are now called guerillas or national resistance fighters. As for [Soviet] war veterans, they have only one status - that of 'occupiers', with all the ensuing consequences. They can only hope for support from the Russian Embassy and private individuals (businessmen)." (Vesti-Segodnya, May 14)
LITHUANIA
The pro-government media are indignant at Moscow for its refusal to comment on the position of Vilnius, which has blocked Russia-EU talks on a new agreement. The opposition media believe that this step will sooner lead to defeat than success. "Officially Moscow does not comment on Lithuania's strict position on EU-Russia talks. [Russian Ambassador] Boris Tsepov does not even talk about this. 'If you mean the official opinion, you know it better than me. As for the unofficial view, I'm not going to disclose it to you,' Tsepov declared... He confirmed that he continues to believe that this country is a community of hell-raisers." (Lietuvos Zinios, May 15)
"Having banged the door... and blocked EU-Russia talks, Vilnius risked being alone... The press services of the Lithuanian foreign ministry and the president simultaneously produced a sensation - foreign ministers have fully backed Lithuania, and will also support Georgia in the same way... It is not known how well-grounded this rejoicing is, and whether it is just another declaration of 'complete victory,' which conceals 'complete loss.'" (Litovsky Kurier, May 15)
The media are angry at systematic hikes in prices of Russian fuel. Some publications blame the most recent gas price increase on Gazprom's biased attitude to its Lithuanian partners. "Gas prices have beaten all records this year. Experts believe that this is not a surprise... Gazprom promised European prices for Lithuania three years ago... Now we receive this news with surprise... Regrettably, this is not the final price... Gas prices will grow, both because of global trends and because of Gazprom's invented price policy, which is hitting us the hardest." (Veidas, May 16)
BELARUS
Describing possible scenarios for the development of bilateral relations between Russia and Belarus, the opposition media are emphasizing the absence of friendly ties between Dmitry Medvedev and Alexander Lukashenko, and the latter's interest in weakening Russian government agencies.
"Lukashenko should find a point of contact with Medvedev by all means. He has made several official and unofficial invitations to Russia's third president to visit Minsk, pronounced meaningful statements, and demonstrated his knowledge of the Kremlin's inside life, but so far without success... 'Friendship' with Russia's third president is a dream which has been ordered to become truth... Needless to say, Lukashenko is vitally interested in the division of the Russian leadership. The Belarusian president knows how to maneuver between two centers of power, and hopes, not without a reason, that a split in the Russian government will allow him to make up for what he lost last year. At any rate, the question of his fourth presidential term would be agreed upon with Moscow." (Belorussky Partizan, May 19)
Some publications are ironic about Medvedev, portraying him as a slightly infantile idealist who is divorced from reality. "We are interested in Medvedev not only because ... he listens to Deep Purple and is a third-generation intellectual. He admitted on his official site that he reads Chekhov, Bunin, and Dostoyevsky. Until quite recently, he was a teacher at Leningrad State University, but now he is the president. Video clips are made about him, generals salute him... Obviously, the actions of this amazing man... are being prompted by his sophisticated inner world, which does not have room for military drill or KGB bees. Those who would like to understand what motivates his actions should concentrate on Chekhov's moving characters rather than a conspiracy theory or geopolitics." (BelGazeta, May 14)
UKRAINE
The media are extensively covering the on going diplomatic scandal surrounding statements by Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov about Sevastopol's inadequate administrative status. Journalists are criticizing the position of the Russian Foreign Ministry and many Russian politicians for supporting the mayor.
"It seems that the mayor of Moscow's statements on Sevastopol were not accidental. This is confirmed by the opinion expressed by Deputy Speaker of the Duma Lyubov Sliska, of the United Russia party. She said that the question of the status of the peninsula, and in particular, Sevastopol could be raised in relevant international... agencies... Moscow has no legal right to go to court in order to get Sevastopol or the Crimea. It is common knowledge that a signature under an international document overrides any opinions and sentiments... It seems that the Russian Foreign Ministry fails to pass the test for the continuity of foreign policy." (Den, May 14)
Experts are writing about Russia's failure to legalize immigrant laborers. "Guest workers in Russia have to go 'into the shadow.' Plants and factories ... have exhausted their quotas for foreign workers even before the end of the first half-year, but they need manpower. Therefore, immigration will be illegal in the second half of the year... According to the latest information, Ukrainians form the majority of foreign workers in Russia. This is why the hardest hit by the limit on quotas will be our compatriots, who are traveling en masse to the neighboring country in search of jobs... Acknowledging the inadequacy of the established quotas, the heads of the FMS [Federal Migration Service] are making helpless gestures." (Delo, May 15)
MOLDOVA
The media are extensively covering the Transdnestr conflict, and Russia's role in settling it. According to Moldovan sources, Russia considers Moldova and Transdnestr's reconciliation a major foreign policy project, which will improve its image as a peacemaker in the eyes of the world. The opposition press insists that Moscow is using the conflict as a bargaining chip in its wider foreign policy. "If the plan succeeds, Moscow will prove to the world that abstention from the NATO entry directly leads to the restoration of territorial integrity. Chisinau is expected to seal Moldova's permanent neutrality at international level, in order to reliably guarantee that it will not join NATO." (Infotag, May 16)
"Moscow wants to demonstrate its peacemaking abilities, and to prove to the entire world, but primarily Ukraine and Georgia, that abstention from joining NATO is a direct road to the restoration of territorial integrity. However, to achieve this Moldova... should renounce its unitary character, and agree to federalization... A historic mission assumed by Russia... looks like a diplomatic operation against Ukraine and Georgia, as a result of which Russia hopes to gain moral and geostrategic advantages... Moscow wants to turn Moldova into a Trojan horse of Russian imperialism. But we should not be blinded by the Kremlin's fireworks - the Russian-proposed settlement is not based on a change of position towards separatism, and does not meet our interests." ( Jurnal de Chisinau, May 20)
ARMENIA
The press is anxiously discussing Russian-Georgian relations, and the risks to Armenia from an aggravation of the Karabakh conflict. "Armenia is directly affected whenever Moscow and Tbilisi develop tensions in their relations... Moscow has announced that the repairs of the Upper Lars border check point will be completed in the near future... Today, this is the only ground route linking Armenia with Russia. But when Russian-Georgian relations are aggravated again, we can forget about Upper Lars's early opening... Several years ago, restoration of railway communication with Russia via Georgia was also discussed, but now it is difficult to get there even by car." (Pakagits, May 14)
"For Russia, the first objective is to prevent NATO bases ...from appearing on Azerbaijan's territory, and to avert its entry into NATO. Most probably, it believes it can achieve this goal by seeking Armenian concessions on Karabakh." (Respublika Armenia, May 15)
Analyzing the changes on the Russian political scene, the media have made the assumption that Vladimir Putin is somewhat wary of Dmitry Medvedev, who has no foreign policy experience. "Russia's highest echelons of power have decided that the ex-president will supervise relations with Armenia. In other words, Putin does not trust his successor in this respect. This is because Russia is concerned about a possible rapprochement between Yerevan and the West. This is why Putin has decided not to take a risk, because the new president may not withstand rivalry with the West, which will either allow Armenia to leave Moscow's side, or will seriously weaken Russia's positions in it." (Pakagits, May 14)
GEORGIA
The media are accusing Russia of annexing Georgian territory. "Russia's consistent actions in the conflict zones in Georgia, in parallel with military intervention, amount to full-scale crawling occupation, which will ultimately turn Georgian territories into its de facto property." (Pankisi.info, May 15)
"This is a very serious provocation aimed at drawing us into military confrontation." (Novosti-Gruzia, May 16). "Russia has long looked at its neighbors and the Caucasus as a zone which has temporarily left its sphere of influence and has to be recovered." (Georgia Online, May 19)
Some authors are calling on the republic's authorities to use force against the "aggressor." "We must use all resources for a peaceful settlement of the Abkhaz conflict, but if we do not achieve results, we should choose the right time and recover our territory by force of arms." (Rezonansi, May 14). "Georgia must spare no effort in strengthening its ... military positions." (Georgia Online, May 19)
The media believe that Tbilisi's position on bilateral talks on Russia's WTO entry is one of its few levers of influence on Moscow. "We will not support Russia's bid to join the WTO... If Russia does not change its position, Georgia will not do so, either...In violation of all agreements, our neighbor cancels sanctions...against the self-proclaimed republic." (Georgia Online, May 18)
AZERBAIJAN
Political scientists are emphasizing Azerbaijan's advantageous position in a region where the geopolitical interests of world powers come into conflict. "The West cannot allow Moscow to consolidate...its positions in the South Caucasus, because Azerbaijan is ...a key to reaching long-term strategic goals... The Kremlin has no other choice but to hope that Baku will give in under the pressure of accumulated problems... We should continue maneuvering between Moscow and the West, while confidently orienting ourselves to the latter." (Zerkalo, May 14)
The media are convinced that Russia is not interested in the aggravation of relations with Azerbaijan. "There are problems between Russia and Azerbaijan... Relations are not as complicated as with Georgia, so why worsen them? It would be stupid to acquire another enemy in the Caucasus in addition to Georgia." (Echo, May 14)
The Federal Agency for CIS Affairs is meant to deter Western influence in post-Soviet republics, but some observers believe that this is a lost cause. "By establishing a special agency for CIS affairs, Russia is trying to restore its positions in these countries in the belief that they continue to be its sphere of influence." (Novoye Vremya, May 14) "Each country has its own interests, which do not coincide with those of Russia... It does not matter what agencies are set up in the CIS. If somebody wants to cooperate with them, let them do so." (Novoye Vremya, May 14)
KAZAKHSTAN
Some media believe that the image of Russia painted by Russian television channels is quite unseemly. "Television screens in the neighboring country are ceasing to show... the faces of poets and artists; instead they are flashing the mugs of Russian policymakers, who are trying to order around the surrounding nations. Russian television also often shows us Topols and MiGs, as if saying: 'Wait, guys, let us get stronger, and become your bigger brothers - then we will make friends'... This propaganda is counterproductive. Russia... is acquiring more enemies than friends. We are losing it under the storm of applause meant for a different, United Russia, which is fond of holding pompous ceremonies in the spirit a certain crazy Gefreiter." (Megapolis, May 19)
KIRGIZSTAN
Journalists are concerned about Gazprom's influence in the region. They believe that the Russian gas monopoly is manipulating energy resources in the name of the Russian elite's political goals. "Under Putin, the Russian authorities have been skillfully using natural resources as a means of exerting pressure on other countries. This is no secret to anyone. This policy is primarily manifest in natural gas exports. Like a huge spider, Gazprom has spread its tentacles over the whole of Europe and the ex-Soviet countries. Everyone understands that any rise on natural gas prices is dictated not by its managers but by its real leaders in the Kremlin." (Alibi, May 14)
TURKMENISTAN
In connection with the appointment of a new chairman of the Russian-Turkmen Business Council, one opposition publication is writing about the difficulties facing Russian investors in the Turkmen market: "Leonid Potapov is called upon...to guide the process of 'promoting friendship and cooperation' with Turkmenistan. Probably, seeing how intensively, cautiously and comprehensively, using the carrot-and-stick policy, the United States and the European Union are working with Berdymukhamedov..., Russia has also decided to upgrade the status of its Turkmen project. Unofficial sources from Ashgabat report...that for the time being, the Turkmen authorities display 'reserved optimism' towards the idea of 'promoting friendship and cooperation...' Russian companies have not been given free access to the Turkmen market (even if they are eager to pay 'entrance' and 'monthly' fees)... When his [Potapov's] appointment was endorsed by the Russian State Duma, Vladimir Putin said that Russian companies had problems with investing in foreign states." (Turkmenskaya Iskra, May 12)
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