The CIS and Baltic press on Russia

ESTONIA

The media write that the global financial crunch will also affect Russia, which cannot weather both domestic and external risks.

"It is said that fools and bad roads are Russia's main problems. This may be so, but it now has several other problems. Oil prices are undercutting the budget, unclear rules of the game are increasing capital outflow, and the stock market crisis is compounding all of these risks. A strong economy, such as Germany, can weather external problems. An externally strong country, such as Saudi Arabia, can deal with a lop-sided economy. But the Russian economy is vulnerable on both sides." (Parnu Postimees, October 2)

LATVIA

The media write about the address by the Latvian federation of food companies to the country's top authorities whose anti-Russian rhetoric is affecting Latvia's business interests.

"Our politicians' actions during the Russian-Georgian conflict cannot be interpreted as an attempt to protect national interests. Rather, they can be described as putting the cart before the horse." (Latvijas Avize, October 1)

"The recommendations by some businesses to keep silent will not benefit them or the state, because Latvia's mum policy cannot change Russia's foreign policy." (Latvijas Avize, October 1)

"Our leaders are enthusiastically lashing out at Russia. As a result, anti-Russian hysteria has worsened political relations, and bilateral trade may plummet soon. [Businessmen] have called on the politicians responsible for the country's foreign policy to shut up." (Vesti Segodnya, October 3)

"If Latvia wants to fight for democracy around the world, let it fight Cuba, Venezuela and North Korea. Why quarrel with Russia, the only country that can make up for the losses we are sustaining due to the crisis in the West?" (Business & Baltija, October 6)

LITHUANIA

Local journalists write that the leaders of Lithuanian political parties are afraid to sound pro-Russian during the current parliamentary election campaign.

"The more experienced parties prefer not to speak about the ethnic problems, apparently for fear of being considered pro-Russian. They are demonstrating national patriotism ahead of the elections." (Runet.lt, October 3)

The media write about the words of Russian Ambassador to Lithuania Vladimir Chkhikvadze, who said the Lithuanian businesses could repair the Druzhba oil pipeline, whose operation has been suspended because of an accident.

"According to Chkhikvadze, the pipeline is being used as a political argument, which it is not. He said Russia did not need that pipeline, that it needed the Nord Stream pipeline instead." (Lietuvos Rytas, October 1)

"Change in Russia's stance regarding the Druzhba pipeline is designed to show Lithuanian politicians what tone they should use when dealing with Russia to get at least minimum results." (Atgiminas, October 4)

Lithuanian politicians and media are outraged by the high prices of Russian natural gas.

"Lithuania is paying more for Russian gas than any other European country. In late summer, Lithuania paid over $500 per 1,000 cubic meters of Russian gas. What can we sell to start buying Russian gas cheaper, valuables or our independence? Why is Russia punishing us by selling gas to us at higher prices than to Germany? These prices are not economically substantiated." (Delgi.lt, October 7)

BELARUS

Journalists write that Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb, the OSCE chairman-in-office, plans to visit the country simultaneously with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

"The arrival of the OSCE chairman-in-office the next day after Putin is hardly a coincidence. The Kremlin has a serious instrument to influence the Belarusian authorities, the energy prices. In return for a price discount, the Russian prime minister may demand that Belarus recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which the West would not like. This is why Stubb has been dispatched to Minsk, to try to neutralize the consequences of Putin's visit. [President Alexander] Lukashenko probably feels better than anyone else in this situation. He is like a bride with two grooms. The best policy for Minsk now would be postponing saying ‘Yes' to either groom." (Solidarnost, October 5)

Opposition sources write about the publication of the book titled "The History of Imperial Relations: Belarusians and Russians," by writer and historian A. Taras, who interprets the history of Russian-Belarusian relations from radically anti-Russian positions.

"Smolensk is a Belarusian city populated by Belarusians, whom the Moscow authorities regard as Russians, although far from everyone in the city and region agree. This is our land. Moreover, Moscow should also belong to us, or else why we conquered it in 1612? Well, let them use it. There is no friendship with Russia; this is all a lie. Objectively, we have always been dependent on that country, its energy resources and its market for our goods. This is why we had to be friends and to develop special relations with it. But everyone knows that the period of special relations is over. Russians themselves have said that, though friends we may be, business is business." (Solidarnost, October 5)

UKRAINE

The Ukrainian media write about the Russian-Ukrainian treaty of friendship, cooperation and partnership, which was prolonged for 10 years in early October. Some journalists write that the theoretical termination of the "greater treaty" would have hit at Moscow more painfully than at Kiev.

"The termination of the treaty would not have amounted to territorial claims. Russia is working hard to prove to the world that the events in the Caucasus and the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia's independence were an exception to the rule, the same as the recognition of Kosovo's independence in the West. A unilateral termination of the treaty would have been a gross mistake for Russia. Had it severed the treaty, this would have put in question the viability of all treaties signed by Russia. Besides, this would have raised the question of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine." (Ekonomicheskiye Izvestia, October 2.)

Some journalists writing about the assassination of investigative journalist Anna Politkovskaya two years ago recall a popular version of the Russian government's involvement in it.

"Her murder has not been solved; only its organizers have been arrested, but not those who ordered or executed it. We are called upon to disregard the obvious. The investigators claim that the former officers of the FSB and the Russian Interior Ministry involved in the case were hired killers who committed murders for money, and that it was a coincide that they knew the criminals who formed part of that group, because the group ordered to murder Politkovskaya was allegedly formed in a hurry." (Gazeta po-ukrainski, October 7)

MOLDOVA

Opposition media does not doubt that the implementation of the Kremlin's geopolitical ambitions poses a threat to the democratic aspirations of post-Soviet countries.

"Russia has proclaimed the intention to restore its ‘sphere of influence' and stop the eastward expansion of NATO. It has made open demands to Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova, which have dared to choose the wrong direction. Growing bolder, Russia is attempting to ‘overthrow' the U.S. and is claiming the role of a power pole. In fact, Russia is trying to bind Transdnestr to Moldova to prevent its movement in any direction. The goal is to stop us from joining NATO and the EU. But the West is not so irresponsible as to start a war with Russia. And it doesn't need to, because Russia, just as the Soviet Union whose role it is taking up, is punishing itself." (Jurnal de Chisinau, October 3) ARMENIA

Central Asia may become the new arena for Moscow and Washington's confrontation on post-Soviet territory, experts forecast. "If Putin and Medvedev take steps to further aggravate relations with the United States, they can find an arena better than the South Caucasus, namely the Central Asian countries where the United States has its military bases, such as Kyrgyzstan. The U.S. position in this region is weaker than it seems, and if the Russians want to fight the American influence they should do it in Central Asia." (ArmInfo News Agency, October 6)

Ankara's attempts to strengthen its positions in the Caucasus will not find support in the Kremlin, experts say. "Turkey's initiative to establish a platform for stability and security is an attempt to increase its influence in the region. Georgia is not Turkey's ally anymore. With Russia's geopolitical position suddenly reinforced, Turkey has come up with an initiative involving Russia and leaving the United States outside." "This is Turkey's attempt to share the region with Russia, while the latter is not willing to share it." (Azg, October 2)

GEORGIA

The statement by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who claims it is too early for Georgia and Ukraine to join the membership action plan, has provoked much feedback in Georgia's media. Commentators link the Chancellor's position to pressure from Moscow, though they admit that in the current situation Georgia's NATO entry looks doubtful anyway.

"Merkel's attitude is the result of the pressure imposed by the Kremlin. At the present stage, Georgia's NATO entry is not possible, and it is easy to give up what has already been lost. Merkel is a cautious politician: she has previously stated that both Georgia and Ukraine will be admitted for the membership action plan, but she never mentioned when that would happen, and she is still saying it will happen some day. Her position is a statement of fact - still, we do not want to consider this, although our partner countries had warned us that Georgia should not get involved in the conflict, which we failed to follow. Georgia's entry into such organization as NATO carries with it the risk of unleashing World War III." (Rezonansi, October 4)

Local business newspapers are very skeptical about the ability of the Russian economy to withstand the global finance crisis. "The fact that Russia's economy still continues to exist even after the 50% collapse of the stock exchange index shows its unique character. In Russia, economic issues are solved outside the stock market, with the country not fully integrated in the global financial system and corruption still being strong. A strong dependence on oil and the vulnerability of private property owners make Russia a highly unappealing market, with capital flowing out at each threat signal." (Biznesi, October 2)

AZERBAIJAN

Moscow will not support Ankara's proposal to establish a platform for stability and security, fearing Turkey's growing influence in the Caucasus. "The Russians do not want Turkey to spread its influence further in the Caucasus, and they will not tolerate the Turks having certain interests in the Caucasus. Turkey, with its eight-million Circassian expat community residing in the country, is the second state after Russia to be able to affect the situation in the North Caucasus - so Russia is doing everything possible to stop Turkey's plan." (Sharg, October 7)

The visit of Armenian President Serge Sargsyan to Tbilisi was interpreted by analysts as Yerevan's first step away from Moscow's influence, which would make for settling the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. "Armenia is ready to leave the Russian political orbit, making steps towards the West. The country is ashamed to always be at Moscow's beck and call, with the Armenians realizing that they cannot rely on Russia and beginning their own game. If they succeed, the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, as well as other problems, will be settled. All Armenia needs to leave the Kremlin's grip is some determination." (1News.az, October 1)

Moscow appears to be in a nearly total political isolation, some commentators believe. "Russia's position seems very weak. It is getting no support from other states, which choose to keep the distance. Even the Soviet Union never faced a situation like this. If the Kremlin officials realize that they have succeeded in restoring even a little of the country's international reputation which was lost over its military adventure in Georgia, then the anti-Azerbaijan rhetoric will resume soon." (Day.az, October 1)

According to the local media, Gazprom has struck a deal with Germany's E.ON to develop jointly the Yuzhno-Russkoye oil and gas deposit in Siberia only due to its financial problems. "The agreement between Gazprom and E.ON was signed soon after Russian officials performed sweeping inspections in the country's fuel and energy sector, claiming that the access to the strategic sectors of the Russian economy will be restricted for foreigners. Gazprom would gladly develop the deposit on its own. However, even a giant like Gazprom is experiencing financial difficulties at the moment.  The company is pursuing its policy by foul play, trying to implement ambitious projects while having no gas or financial resources for them. Gazprom will hardly be able to continue this game indefinitely, purchasing natural gas in Turkmenistan and selling it to Europe, while continuing its policy of an ‘energy bludgeon' would be even harder. (Ekho, October 4)   

KAZAKHSTAN

Commentators dwell on the prospects for Kazakhstan's multipronged policy, as this country is one of the largest hydrocarbons suppliers in the region.

"The United States wants to set Kazakhstan at loggerheads with Russia casting it in the role of regional leader. However, our leader is wise and experienced enough to insist that we will not ‘run after [U.S. Secretary of State] Condoleezza Rice or anyone else.' [Kazakhstan's Foreign Minister Marat] Tazhin has shown that he also is capable of using ‘double standards' in his relations with Washington." (Respublika, October 6) "While Moscow and Washington pursue opposite goals in Eastern Europe, they have the same goals in Central Asia: they do not want serious radical trends to flourish or Beijing's influence to strengthen in the region; additionally, both players want the timely implementation of oil contracts." (Liter KZ, October 7)

TAJIKISTAN

The non-governmental media emphasize that the republic has launched the construction of the Rogun hydroelectric plant without waiting for Russia's investment support. They initially believed Rusal was doomed to failure without support from the Kremlin. "It is obvious that the Kremlin preferred to take no sides with regard to Tajikistan-Rusal relations. Political analysts waited for the ‘Kremlin factor' to be put to use. One of these days, Putin could invite the Tajik President to Sochi for a cup of tea and persuade him not to be rough on Rusal. Everyone was sure this would happen and that it would work. However, it has not happened." (FK-Capital, September 24)

Journalists think the Russian company has failed because it wanted too much - a controlling stake in the Rogun HPP. "Frankly speaking, it was too greedy. What makes former Soviet people different from Westerners is the desire to get something for nothing. To some extent, Rusal's failure to obtain a stake in the Rogun project is proof of this." (Avesta News Agency, September 25)