The spiritual leader and founder of the Hamas extremist organisation, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, died as he wanted to - by becoming a martyr. His death in an Israeli anti-terrorist operation in Gaza will hardly improve Israel's security, but will only spark a new wave of terror from the Palestinians. There can be no talk about the peace process in the wake of his death. No Palestinians are going to seek contact with Israel in the near future.
The Russian Foreign Ministry noted that this situation can "only lead to a new wave of violence which will thwart all the efforts to restart negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis made by the Middle East quartet (the US, EU, UN and Russia) and the key regional sides." "The situation around the Palestine-Israel conflict was not very good, but now it is far worse," sources in the Russian Foreign Ministry told RIA Novosti. The assassination of the Hamas spiritual leader will yield no positive results, they said.
Why was Yassin killed? Before the murder, Israeli Defence Minister Shaul Mofaz stated at a cabinet session that the military top brass was working out a plan to weaken Hamas considerably before Israel's retreat from Gaza. Less than 24 hours later, the plan had been implemented.
Indeed, the Russian Foreign Ministry sources agreed that Yassin's death would undermine Hamas, but numerous small extremist groups will come to replace it, leading to even more chaos in the region. It is no secret that a compromise is easier to find with one group than with a dozen. However, Russia, unlike Europe, has never conducted negotiations with Hamas and its leader, probably because Moscow did not trust Yassin's promises and did not believe in talks with him.
According to reliable sources, Moscow has recently become disillusioned with leader of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) Yassir Arafat but has not yet expressed it officially. The Russian leadership is continuing negotiations with him, because he is the legitimate leader of the Palestinian people, unlike Yassin despite his influence among Palestinians.
Russian experts are not sure that Yassin could be trusted, but some of them still think that dialogue with him was possible. Irina Zvyagelskaya, a leading Russian expert on the Palestine-Israel conflict, recalled in a RIA Novosti interview that the Hamas leader had promised a few days ago that his movement would end the violence if Israel withdrew its settlers from the occupied territories.
At the same time, Yassin had repeatedly stated, "Islam allows a temporary truce with the enemy, but forbids permanent peace." True, there were cases when Hamas declared a ceasefire and an end to terrorist attacks against the Israelis, but it never refused to give up the war against the Jewish settlers living on the occupied territories. Now there will be nobody to contact inside Hamas. Of course, there were no official negotiations with this organisation because Israel maintains no ties with terrorists, but experts suggest that contacts on a special services level must have taken place. Now that Yassin has been killed, hardly any Hamas leaders will agree to negotiations with Israel.
"We should not idealise this politician," Zvyagelskaya believes. "But we should remember that he was not only able to mastermind terrorist attacks but also had the power to curb them. Hardly anybody else in Hamas can influence both the tactics and strategy of this organisation, which inevitably means that it will pursue a more aggressive policy in the wake of Yassin's death." Moreover, the situation in the region looks disastrous because neither Hamas leaders nor the entire Palestinian leadership nor even any Arab politicians will be able to conduct negotiations. Yassin's death has incensed the Arab world.
Sheikh Yassin's personality was attractive to many. Even those Palestinians who disapproved of Hamas terrorist attacks, the attempts to Islamise Palestine and Yassin's asceticism, respected the organisation's socially orientated policy more than the "luxurious" lifestyle of Arafat's entourage.
Recently, militant FATH groups headed by Arafat refused to fulfil the PNA leader's orders and sided with Hamas. It became clear that if the Israelis left Gaza, in line with Sharon's plan for unilateral secession from Palestine, then this enclave would become fully controlled by Hamas.
This is something that Arafat did not like, but he had to heed Yassin's influence among the Palestinians and other Arabs, and sometimes even had to express his respect for him. He never tried to seriously frustrate Hamas activity, including its terrorist attacks on Israel.
The organisation's growing influence in Gaza was not welcomed by Egypt either, which has long been fighting its own Islamic groups. As long as Israeli border guards protected the border in Gaza, Egypt was calm. But recently, Israel proposed that Egypt introduce military control in Gaza. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, however, does not want to take responsibility for Gaza developments, because no Arab leader can officially counter Palestinian resistance movement. And now hardly any of them will agree to contact Israel for fear of undermining their reputation in the Arab world. They have no other option but to support the Arab resistance movement. This state of things does not encourage the implementation of the road map plan, which the Middle East quartet still sees as the only chance for a peaceful settlement. However, it will now have to wait for better times.
