Minister of Economic Development and Trade German Gref told reporters that Russia's GDP growth was forecasted to reach 6.4% in 2004, and 6.2% in 2005.
According to the minister, the rate of inflation is expected to make 6.5-8.5% in 2005. In 2007, it is to go down to 4-6%, and by 2010 - to 2-4%. The ministry's forecast says that the inflation will make 10% this year.
The strengthening of the ruble against the dollar will account for 8.7% this year, and 2.5% in 2005, and the real strengthening of the effective ruble exchange rate in 2004 will stand at 7.9%, and in 2005 - 5.2%. The index of the real exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar is forecasted to be 99.1% in 2005, with subsequent strengthening by 2.1-2.3% by 2007.
According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, the average oil price for 2004 will make $27.5 per barrel. According to Mr. Gref, the forecast of oil prices was corrected on Wednesday in view of updated forecasts of the leading international agencies.
In 2005, according to the optimistic scenario, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade forecasts the oil price at $26 per barrel. According to the pessimistic forecast, in 2004 the average oil price will make $23.5 per barrel, and in the subsequent years - $20 per barrel.
In 2004, Russia plans to export 242 million tons of oil. In 2005 this figure will grow up to 247 million tons, in 2006 - to 253 million, and in 2007 - 260 million tons. According to the minister, Russia may extract far more oil but its export is limited by the transport infrastructure. "If we resolve this problem, exports may grow," said Mr. Gref.
According to him, the growth margin for tariffs in Russia in 2005 will be as follows: gas tariffs - 20%, electricity - 10%, and cargo railway freight transportation - 9%. At the same time, Mr. Gref said that the government would be analyzing budgets and investment programs of natural monopolies in May, and might lower the growth ceiling.
The minister also said that investment in the Russian economy would double in the next four years - from $71 billion in 2003 to $145 billion in 2007. According to the government, direct foreign investment will go up to $9-9.5 billion.
Scenarios of the Russian economic development for 2005-2007 will be finalized before April 1, with due account for the recommendations voiced at the government session, and then the document will be submitted to ministries and departments, and to the regions.
On the basis of this document, ministries and regional authorities will present their views on the development of industries and regions. This material will lie at the basis of the socio-economic forecast for 2005 and for a medium term, said Mr. Gref.
According to him, the government will consider the scenarios for the second time in May, and for the third and final time - in July, before the final approval of the 2005 draft federal budget by the government.
Mr. Gref noted that the budget process that began today with the adoption of scenarios ran on schedule.
