Many people in Russia are haunted by an intense feeling of irrationality. On May 1, which is traditionally celebrated as the day of international solidarity of working people, a giant union of 25 countries with an aggregate population of 450 million will become Russia's direct neighbour.
May Day festivities cannot overshadow the ghost of old advancing on Russia, the ghost of the USSR, which collapsed in 1991 and has since been condemned for many sins but is still near and dear to Russians. No wonder that the 25-member EU is jokingly called the ESSR in Russia.
Formally, one could expect EU enlargement to have a negative effect on ordinary Russians. "A new wall has risen on our borders to divide us from the prosperous Europe... We are lagging behind global processes again... We have been isolated... Our grim future is nail biting with Ukraine and Belarus as our sole companions..."
Such sentiments are utterly misplaced. Polls held by a respected Russian sociological center show that the majority of respondents do not view the former socialist countries and former Soviet republics that are set to join the EU as genuine European countries. They are, geographically, but not quite. Not like France, Germany, Britain and other "genuine" European countries, which the public regards as part of the European culture as Tolstoy and Turgenev described it.
This is probably why the Russian public, whose opinion is presented in the media, does not feel any envy for the new members. Instead, the general mood is pessimistic and even one of condolence.
The Russian Slavophiles feel sorry for the new members who will have to forget about independent decisions on many matters. Carrying on the analogy with the USSR, this part of Russian society pictures itself a grim picture of future regular visits of these countries' leaders to Brussels for "instructions," a procedure not unlike the visits of the leaders of ethnic republics of the former Soviet Union to Moscow. The swelling EU bureaucracy is seen in these visions as a kind of the Soviet Communist Party Central Committee.
But one can also feel sorry for this bureaucracy, too. Its more discerning members admit that the group of ten new members is far from homogeneous, which will add a new insecurity factor to decision-making in the leading EU bodies. Debates may become ten times more complicated and their outcome, ten time less predictable. The probability of paralysis with regard to the most contentious ideas, such as the European Constitution, is growing dramatically.
Another major problem of the expanded EU stems from the following two figures: the aggregate population will grow by 20% but the aggregate economy, by only 5%. The united Europe will gain weight but will become considerably poorer per capita of its population.
Those Russians who keep track of international political developments have noted that accession referendums were held only in the new members, while nobody asked the people of the "old" EU members if they wanted to share their home and bread with newcomers. It looks as if many of them would have said "No" to such a question.
The gap in the prosperity standards of the new and old members will be a heavy burden on the united Europe for years to come. In reality, the EU expansion can be described as new members winning and the old ones relatively losing out. Instead of implementing its dream of catching up with America, Europe may lag further behind its economic rival.
And so, we can predict, with a great degree of confidence, what apple of discord will appear in Brussels after May 1. It will be the EU budget. The newcomers will try to swell all the basic items in the hope that money will flow into their capitals for the projects that have not been clearly outlined yet. From their viewpoint, this would be fair compensation for becoming the source of cheap labour and foodstuffs for the EU and a comfortable market for the EU commodities and services. But will Brussels comply?
Brussels officials may be sorry that they do not have such a powerful tool at their disposal as the guiding and directing force of the omnipotent Soviet Communist Party. But then, they do not have any new mechanisms that would be suited for new conditions of expanded membership.
The ghost of the USSR comes to mind also when I think about the ideological virus which enlargement can bring to united Europe. Anti-Semitism, which has become a fact of life in France, might look like child's play against the diehard Judophobia that can be found in some new members.
The EU has not seen such outright discrimination against ethnic minorities from which the Russian speakers are suffering in Estonia and Latvia. The "friendship of peoples" in the former Soviet Union has a highly unpleasant aftertaste and some of the newcomers would like to bring it directly to Europe.
Happily, Brussels is completely aware of this. EU membership should become a firm guarantee of "the protection of persons belonging to minorities," says the Russia-EU agreement signed in Luxembourg on Wednesday.
Hurt by the humiliating situation of their compatriots in the two Baltic countries, Russia's citizens were glad that the issue was not limited to the pledge made in the above document. According to Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the EU also promised to present to Russia a plan of social reintegration for the new EU members, which entails practical actions and allocations, including for assistance to minorities.
But will Tallinn and Riga muster the political will to take to heart these concerns of Moscow and Brussels? This is an entirely different question.
The Luxembourg agreement has minimised Russia's losses from the EU enlargement. The EU accepted a considerable reduction in trade tariffs, agreed to curtail anti-dumping measures against Russian commodities, increased quotas for Russian steel imports, and confirmed current contracts on the delivery of nuclear materials to the new EU members.
From the viewpoint of Russians, it was a broad gesture of goodwill on behalf of a giant new organisation, which resembles the Soviet Union so much. On the other hand, they are not surprised, as there were quite a few good things in the USSR.
