"Should the task of doubling the GDP be solved by 2012, the average annual rate of growth must total 7.2%," Illarionov believes.
"If the task is resolved by 2010, it means that the average annual rates have to constitute 9.3%," Illarionov said while commenting on the task set by the Russian president in his state of the nation address to the Federal Assembly to double the GDP for 10 years.
Illarionov said the task of doubling the GDP was set by the head of state last year. Then, the president took 2002 for a starting point. "Thus, the count started from 2003 and ended in 2012," explained the adviser.
In this address, the president said that if the economic growth rates remain the same, as in this year's first quarter (8%), the task of doubling the GDP may be solved by 2010.
"If high rates of economic growth are maintained, the president believes that this goal can be reached: doubling all economic and doubling the GDP per capita before 2010," Illarionov said.
To confirm that this goal is realizable, Illarionov cited examples from history. "For the last 50 years, 70 out of a total of 140-150 countries of the world doubled their GDPs for 10 years, retaining the average annual rates of growth at the 7.2% level or higher," he said.
"With favorable circumstances and a relevant economic policy, this can be done in Russia too," believes the presidential adviser.
For recent years, horizons of planning have expanded in Russia. "The strategy can be built in such a way as to achieve high and stable rates of economic growth within 10, 8 years or even shorter period," Illarionov believes.
At the same time, the presidential adviser said that today's rate of GDP growthis still 22% less than in 1989. Though "today's GDP is not the same," Illarionov added, saying that today's economy is more oriented to real demand and production of necessary goods and services.
Private consumption, in his words, reached for the last five years a level 21% higher than in 1989 and 34% higher than in the crisis year of 1998.
At the same time, according to Illarionov's idea, "there is no need in the abstract economic growth. Economic growth should be for people. An increase of real benefits, goods and services for each citizen is needed."
"That's why the GDP per capita should be doubled, private consumption and the living standard should be doubled," explained the adviser.
Illarionov said that "the main task formulated in the presidential address is creation and development in the country of a free society of free people."
"It may sound not economic, but it's the main economic, political, philosophical and social goal," added the presidential adviser.
That's why, Illarionov believes, economic growth is "the main tool and means of ensuring a higher, more secure and comfortable standard of living."
"Money is minted freedom," Illarionov said explaining that a poor person restricted in his capabilities and resources can't be free," Illarionov added.
Illarionov noted that now the GDP per capita by the purchasing power parity is $8,000.
"We should reach $16,000, a level of medium-developed states," Illarionov said. As an example of such countries, he cited Portugal, Greece, Malta, the Czech Republic, South Korea. "However, these countries will not stand still, they will go forward. This is to be taken into account too," the adviser said.
If economic growth in Russia increases by average annual rates of 7.2%, then Russia in 10 years will return to a level it was at in the beginning of 1980s.
"It will take us 30 years to return to where we were. This is the payment for those mistakes that were committed in Soviet time and in 1990s, when the economic policy led to a hard crisis," Illarionov said.
"One should say straightforward that with the existing rates of growth of tariffs on monopoly goods and services, which are offered by the economic development ministry as well, the fulfillment of the task to double the GDP even for 10 years, let alone by 2010, becomes impossible," Illarionov believes. "The same can be said about the rates of increasing the real efficient exchange rate of the ruble," he said. "With this rate of increase that we have seen in the last four months, the task of maintaining the high rates of economic growth will not be resolved."
Illarionov believes the ensuring of an optimal level of state expenditures and the preservation of a stabilization fund to be the key parameters for the resolution of the president-set economic tasks.
"These are the key parameters whose dynamics will be an answer to the question society has: is it possible to solve all tasks set within specified time," Illarionov said.
He said the first parameter is the level of state expenditures as a whole, and in particular, non-interest expenditures. The presidential adviser recalled that the president, in his state of the nation address to parliament, paid special heed to the necessity to ensure the optimal level of expenditures.
In Illarionov's words, the second most important factor in conditions of high dependence of Russian economy on the foreign economic situation is the stabilization fund.
"Unfortunately, we have lately seen desperate attempts to revise this very complicated tool that stabilizes and disciplines the economic policy in the country," Illarionov said.
Touching upon Kakha Bendukidze's appointment as Georgian economics minister, Illarionov said it was "a serious loss" for Russia.
"Beyond any doubt, this is a great gain for Georgia and a serious loss for Russia," Illarionov said.
"Kakha Bendukidze is not only a big and successful businessman. He is a very big and serious public figure of Russia who has done a lot for our economy and our society to become freer and more efficient," said the presidential adviser.
