IRAQI OIL EXPORT DISRUPTIONS WON'T PUSH PRICES FURTHER UP, RUSSIAN LAWMAKER PREDICTS

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MOSCOW, June 16 (RIA Novosti) - The disruption of Iraqi oil exports is unlikely to push the world petroleum prices further up, Russian lawmaker Mikhail Margelov argues.

Mr Margelov, who heads the international affairs committee in parliament's upper house, the Federation Council, said in a RIA interview Wednesday that Iraqi petroleum's influence on world oil prices has never been significant.

The overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime and the subsequent changes in Iraq have not led to the rapid inflow of cheap Iraqi oil on the world's markets, contrary to economic analysts' forecasts, Mr Margelov said. In his judgement, the infrastructure of the post-war Iraq is in such a deplorable condition that the world community should not be expecting steady oil imports from that country any time soon.

Iraq won't be able to provide stable oil supplies to the world's markets until its infrastructure, including pipelines, roads, and communications, is up and running again, the Russian legislator argues. This situation may provide Russian companies with opportunities to contribute not just to the development of Iraq's oil business, but to the upgrading of its infrastructure, too, Mr Margelov said. He believes that cooperation on infrastructure-related projects in Iraq is more realistic today than oil contracts.

Speaking of Saddam Hussein, our interviewee said that the former Iraqi leaders should be handed over for trial to the country's interim government.

The control of all Iraqis captured by the U.S.-led Coalition during combat operations in Iraq, including Saddam, must be handed over to the Iraqi government as soon as it gains sovereignty, Mr Margelov pointed out. He described as "controversial" today's decision by U.S. President George W. Bush not to hand over Saddam to the Iraqi authorities. In the eye of international law, the deposed Iraqi leader is a prisoner of war, and shall therefore be tried by his fellow countrymen.

George W. Bush knows he will stand to gain if he continues keeping Saddam as his personal prisoner in the runup to presidential elections in his country, and it will be remembered that the U.S. Administration already has some experience in holding deposed foreign leaders in custody, with the Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega, Mr Margelov pointed out.

On the other hand, the closer Iraq gets to the election of its own sovereign government, the harder it becomes for the United States to postpone a decision on Saddam's legal status, our interviewee concluded.

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