"I believe their independence is at issue," he added.
According to Mr. Belkovsky, new nations with classical features, common language, statehood and common enemy, have been formed during the existence of unrecognized states in the post-Soviet space. Moreover, their elites controlling resources would hardly agree to lose this control."
Speaking about the activities of Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, Stanislav Belkovsky said that he "had formed a national project for Georgia." "He keeps moving towards a war using the psychological advantage of a leader," the political analyst added.
As for Mr. Saakashvili's plans to restore control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia (the second self-proclaimed republic in Georgia), "he has little material but much moral resources and has ways of accumulating military resources," Mr. Belkovsky said.
In his words, if Russia does not carry out military intervention in the Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian conflicts, Mikhail Saakashvili's victory or the appearance of new peacekeepers are possible, he continued. Turkey can become peacekeeper in the case with Abkhazia, he added.
"The war in South Ossetia may start in early September if the latter is not sure of Russia's assistance," the political analyst emphasized.
According to him, the beginning of military operations in Abkhazia will depend on the results of the military campaign in South Ossetia. "Mikhail Saakashvili will not fight on two fronts," Mr. Belkovsky said.
In his opinion, South Ossetia's accession to the Russian Federation is hardly possible. "This is an improbable situation. Elites of unrecognized states do not want this," he noted.
Independence under Russia's military protectorate can be a compromise, he concluded.
