The inflation rate will be 8-9 % in 2005, 7-7.5 % in 2006 and 5.5-6.5 % in 2007. In 2004 it is expected to equal 10 %. Remarkably, earlier the president and the government set a goal of bringing inflation down by 2 % annually.
The ministry expects Russian exports to amount to $181.9 billion in 2007, imports to $130 billion. Exports in value terms will equal $160.7 billion in 2004, $163.2 billion in 2005 and $172.5 billion in 2006.
Imports will also be growing steadily. According to the forecast, imports in value terms will amount to $93 billion in 2004, $104.7 billion in 2005 and $116 billion in 2006.
The optimistic scenario envisages an average annual oil price in 2005-2007 to equal $28 per barrel. In 2004 an average annual price for Urals oil is expected to be $31.2 per barrel.
Another, moderately conservative, scenario is based on a Urals slump to $25-26 per barrel in 2005-2007 due to a significant fall in global demand or forced increase of supplies.
"The pessimistic scenario corresponds to a critical market destabilization, which is possible if OPEC loses control over the market or the oil demand in developed countries plummet suddenly. In this case, oil price in 2005 may plunge to $22.5 per barrel," reads the forecast. Further on, an average annual Urals price is forecast at $20 per barrel.
The gas tariff threshold will be 23% in 2005, and 11% in 2006. According to the pessimistic scenario, gas prices for industrial consumers will be $34.9 per 1,000 cu m in 2005 and $37.1 in 2006. According to the moderately conservative and optimistic scenarios, the prices will be $35.4 in 2005 and $38.6 in 2006.
The ministry believes that raising wholesale gas prices within the threshold will increase gas supplies on the domestic market, especially from independent producers, as well as encourage its rational use alongside alternative fuels, such as coal.
"Due to increase in domestic gas prices in 1999-2004 at a pace exceeding the inflation rate, gas supplies to the domestic market has become profitable. However, the current domestic prices do not allow fully ensuring investment needs to support and develop the infrastructure oriented towards the domestic market," the report reads.
On August 23, the Russian government will consider the forecast of the country's social and economic development for 2005-2007 together with the 2005 draft budget.
