"The forecasted intensive growth of the population's revenues will make it possible to ensure the annual reduction of the population's poverty level by 2.5-3% annually, and bring the share of the population with incomes lower than the subsistence wage to 12.5% in accordance with variant I [pessimistic] and 10.5% according to variants II and III [moderate conservative and optimistic]," reads the report.
This will considerably improve the Russians' situation in comparison with citizens of other CIS countries, note experts.
At the same time, this optimistic forecast of poverty level reduction in Russia does not take into account the structural poverty barriers connected with low incomes of families with many children, a considerable part of pensioners and rural residents. Resolution of these problems is possible if targeted measures to socially assist the population are realized, notes the report.
Now the share of poor population in Russia is over 20% of the total. It is 31 million people.
Against a background of a general reduction of poverty, the share of population with incomes lower that 50% of per capita incomes in 2005-2007 will remain at about 25%, suppose analysts.
"This testifies to the fact that as a result of revenue growth, the population will transfer from poverty to the category with incomes at the level of 50% of per capita incomes," says the report.
"Thus, reduction of the share of poor population is a necessary but insufficient step to enlarge the middle class and reduce the share of insufficiently provided-for people [with incomes lower than 50% of the average level]," reads the report.
Achievement of these parameters, comparable with the level of developed countries (about 8% in Germany and France, 12% in Great Britain and Japan) demands much more time that three or four years and is possible only on the basis of radical modernization of the economy and social sphere, note analysts.
As for purely financial problems, in line with the forecast of the Economic Development and Trade Ministry, in 2005 the strengthening of the ruble will considerably slow down to reach 3-3.2%.
"Reduction of the rates of growth of internal prices will considerably slow down the growth of the ruble's real rate in comparison with 2000-2004," notes the ministry report.
In 2005, the rates of the ruble's strengthening in conditions of a moderate conservative forecast (variant II), which supposes a favorable situation for Russian exports, will not exceed 3% (3.2% according to the optimistic forecast - variant III).
According to the pessimistic forecast, sharp reduction of trade balance may lead to a certain lowering of the exchange rate in real terms, believe the ministry experts.
"In 2006-2007, the increase of the capital inflow in conditions of variants II and III creates conditions for a relatively strong consolidation of the real exchange rate, which in 2007 may closely approach the pre-crisis level of 1997. This will demand more active interference on the part of the Bank of Russia with the rate formation, so that the rates of growth of the ruble's real exchange rate do not exceed 4-5% from 2005," notes the report.
