MERT: GDP IS GROWING, THE RUBLE IS GETTING STRONGER, AND EXPORT SURPLUS IS INCREASING

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MOSCOW, August 25 (RIA Novosti) - In July, Russia's GDP grew by 7%, as against the July 2003 figure. Summing up the results of the first seven months of this year, Russia's economy grew by 7.4%. These figures are cited in the monitoring report published Wednesday on the site of the economic development and trade ministry (MERT).

The same economic growth indicator (7.4%) was registered by the results of the first half of the year.

According to the ministry's data, industrial output increased by 4.4% in July 2004, as against the July 2003 figure. By the results of the first seven months of the year, industrial output growth constituted 7%, the report says.

Investments were growing at a fast rate. In July, they increased by 10.7%, and their increase over the first seven months of the year constituted 12.3%.

The July inflation figure was at 0.8%. The accumulated price rise over the January-July period was 7.1%.

By the results of the first seven months of the year, MERT continues, the ruble has become stronger by 5.6% against the dollar, and by 7.1% against the euro.

Thus, according to the MERT's assessment, the real effective exchange rate of the ruble (against the currency basket) became stronger by 5.1%.

By the end of the year, the ruble/dollar rate will grow a bit higher, while the ruble/euro rate will stay nearly at the same level. Experts believe that by the end of the year the dollar will cost 29.7 rubles, and the euro - 35.4 rubles.

The average annual nominal exchange rate of the ruble will be 29.1 rubles per dollar, and 35.3 rubles per euro.

The MERT monitoring report also says that since the start of the year Russia's export surplus has increased to $42.1 billion. This is much more than the respective last year's figure ($33.6 billion).

Russia's foreign trade over the January-July period of this year amounted to $143 billion showing a 24.6% increase as against the respective last year's figure.

Russia's exports to foreign countries increased by 23% to amount to $77.4 billion. Exports to CIS countries increased by a third, to amount to $15.1 billion.

Russia's imports increased at about the same pace and exceeded $50 billion.

The ministry increased its average annual forecast for the price of the Urals oil in 2004 to $32 per barrel. The ministry's previous forecast was $31.2 per barrel.

In July, the average price of the Urals oil was $35.4 per barrel, and its average figure for the January-July period was $31.5.

Russia's draft budget for 2005 was estimated on the basis of the average annual oil price at $28 per barrel.

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