Before Ukraine's presidential elections in October, the country has been full of rumors and there is an atmosphere of fear. Security officials' promises to prevent destabilization only heighten these fears.
The atmosphere in Ukraine today is undoubtedly tenser than in Russia during any of its presidential campaigns, which is understandable as election results in Russia are generally predictable. Indeed, incumbent presidents invariably win reelection in Russia, whereas an opposition candidate may win the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine.
What is surprising is Russia's heightened interest in Ukraine's elections. Russia should probably be showing more restraint with regard to the elections because although Ukraine is Russia's neighbor, is a sovereign country. Russia is so involved in campaigning for President Leonid Kuchma's designated successor Viktor Yanukovich that it has even made economic sacrifices to secure voters' support for Mr. Yanukovich. At the meeting with President Kuchma in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi in mid August, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave Ukraine an impressive $800 million present. This is how much Ukraine will earn annually levying VAT on Russia's oil and gas deliveries. Mr. Yanukovich also attended the meeting.
Russia supports Mr. Yanukovich, a pro-Russian candidate, while his major rival, Viktor Yushchenko, is seen as a pro-Western politician. If the latter wins the elections, Russia will "lose" Ukraine. However, this explanation is only partly true. It would be wrong to say that Ukraine's foreign policy was not a campaign issue. Mr. Yanukovich and Mr. Yushchenko do not differ much in their foreign political priorities. If Mr. Yanukovich wins, he is likely to pay his first official visit to the United States and like Mr. Kuchma, will try to reassure the West that integration into the European Union and NATO is Ukraine's strategic objective. If Mr. Yushchenko is elected president, he will probably visit Russia first. The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is not a battlefield between the West and Russia. Yet, Russia is going to "lose" Ukraine if Mr. Yushchenko comes to power. His possible victory will not signify the success of an anti-Russian or a pro-Western policy, but rather the introduction of a European, Western style, rather than Russian or CIS-style, political system in Ukraine.
The possible victory of the opposition, rather than a Western-oriented candidate, is what makes the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine a historic event. This could be the second time the opposition has peacefully won a presidential election in Ukraine. The opposition's victory will signal that a political system in which the rotation of political power is a fact of life has taken root in Ukraine. This is what scares Russia. And this, not Mr. Yushchenko's pro-Western positions, is what makes Ukraine's further integration into Western structures possible or even inevitable and what will deal a blow on the CIS.
All CIS countries, except Moldova, have similar political systems. These regimes have uncontested presidential elections, as the authorities prevent opposition candidates from winning. While these countries use different methods, the results are the same. There have only been two times when opposition candidates came to power through elections in the 11 CIS countries' relatively long post-Soviet history - in 1994 in Belarus and Ukraine.
The successful opposition leaders, Alexander Lukashenko and Leonid Kuchma, then took every precaution to prevent others from following their lead. Mr. Lukashenko did better than his Ukrainian counterpart. Ukraine is a weak link in the CIS chain, as President Kuchma has failed to develop a political system similar to the Russian, Belarussian or the Central Asian one. He has given up plans to run for the third term and is supporting the candidate who would protect him from criminal prosecution. However, even this final endeavor may be unsuccessful.
Ukraine is ready to adopt democracy and reject a regime under which the constitution was continuously amended and one president stayed in power. The country wants a stable constitution and presidents elected through democratic elections.
Why is Russia so concerned?
First, developments in any of the CIS countries influence the other member-states more than events outside the CIS, because CIS countries share a common history and borders, and are linked by centuries-old cultural ties. This is particularly true of the three Slavic nations.
Second, the CIS is very important to Russia psychologically. The CIS is the commonwealth of countries centered around Russia, which is a kind of alternative to Western alliances.
The similarity of political regimes and joint efforts against opposition forces are characteristic features of the CIS. Regardless of how CIS leaders seek rapprochement with the Western community, the nature of their power sets tough restrictions on rapprochement. When they feel their power is in danger, they approach Moscow for assistance. Mr. Yushchenko will not seek to withdraw from the CIS. However, a Ukraine where presidents are elected rather than "appointed" will stop being dependent on the CIS and Moscow. Ukraine's membership in the CIS will be a formality, while the road to Western structures will be open to the country, however difficult and long it may be.
Besides, Ukraine's upcoming elections are important as they reflect the historic logic. All emerging democracies, Russia and other CIS nations are no exception, sooner or later, inevitably switch to democratic elections with an alternative candidate.
