The G3 of Europe - UK, France, and Germany - were preparing the draft resolution under powerful pressure from the U.S. The proposed document is in fact an ultimatum to Tehran - the international nuclear watchdog demands that Iran stop enrichment of uranium, give IAEA inspectors unrestricted access to all relevant sites, and provide "comprehensive and fully transparent answers to all questions IAEA is interested in" before October 31. Although under this document the Iranian nuclear agenda will not be automatically submitted to the UN Security Council for discussion, the authors of the statement made it clear that in November (the next meeting of the Board of Governors is scheduled for November 25) the Agency would make a "final decision" on Iran's nuclear program.
The options for the "final decision" are few: either the "nuclear dossier" will be closed for failure to find a military component in Iran's nuclear program, or, should Iran refuse to comply with the international requirements and should there be no other leverage of pressure on Teheran, the case will be referred to the UN Security Council. A binding UN SC resolution could impose international sanctions on Iran and leave the country isolated from the rest of the world, which Washington has long been seeking for.
Will the U.S. corner Iran this time? The tensions are already high: the day before Iranian representative in IAEA, Hossein Musavian, had said that Iran would not undertake additional commitments to restrict the production of parts for uranium-enrichment centrifuges. "We are not going to bargain about unlimited suspension of uranium enrichment, and we do not accept this," he said.
Not all of the 35 Board members agree with the draft resolution. At the preliminary hearings, criticism of Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands came as a major embarrassment for the G3 because the document had been put on the table on behalf of the whole EU faction in the Council.
The "non-alignment" faction controlling over a third of the Board votes also disapproved of the draft resolution and supported Iran's right to develop peaceful nuclear technologies that, in its opinion, were being unjustifiably restricted by some provisions of the resolution.
Russia and China assumed tough positions and were most hard in their wording. The representatives of the two countries warned the Board members in private that neither Moscow nor Beijing would back the idea of forwarding the Iranian "nuclear dossier" to the UN Security Council. Russia and China warned that they would use their right of veto if there was a real danger of imposing sanctions against Teheran.
Moscow seems totally reluctant to change its stance on the issue of Iran and insists that IAEA should work with Teheran until all questions are cleared up. Chief of the Federal Agency for Atomic Energy of the Russian Federation Alexander Rumyantsev said there were no grounds to fear a military agenda behind Iran's nuclear program. He said that uranium enrichment in Iran had not been proved. There are only the results of centrifuge surface analysis, he pointed out.
Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak said at a deputy foreign minister-level G8 working group meeting in Geneva held on the eve of the IAEA Board of Governors' session that the whole picture of the development of Iranian nuclear program became much more transparent thanks to IAEA efforts.
"Iran has repeatedly stated that all its programs in this field are peaceful. Hopefully all these issues will be cleared up and settled through further cooperation with IAEA and all members of the Agency," he said in what was interpreted as the official position of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
Head of the International Atomic Energy Agency Mohammed el-Baradei told reporters before a break that the Iranian nuclear dispute could be settled before the end of this year "provided there is good will of all parties concerned." He also failed to air any deadline for the commission to arrive at a final decision on the Iranian "nuclear dossier."
"We cannot just say there is a magic date," he said, "There is no artificial deadline where I can say, 'in November everything will be completed.'"
If the November meeting fails to come to a decision on the Iranian "nuclear dossier," the next meeting of the Board of Governors will be held in 2005, and the advocates of the current draft resolution will have to wait until a "final decision" is taken.
