"It is impossible," he said, answering a question about the possibility of Russia doubling its GDP in ten years if it ratified the Kyoto Protocol.
He said that even with an annual GDP growth of 6.2%, by 2010 Russia will have reached the Kyoto Protocol's greenhouse gas emissions levels. According to Mr. Illarionov, an annual economic growth of 7.8% is necessary to double the GDP. Therefore, he concluded, the hopes that Russia, as a party to the Kyoto Protocol, would be able to sell its extra gas quotas are not justified.
Mr. Illarionov said there was a clear relationship between GDP growth and carbon dioxide emissions: the lower the emissions, the lower the GDP growth rate. In his opinion, the protocol is rather harmful to economic development and it discriminates against countries like Russia, with medium and low incomes.
The adviser said that the transition to a post-industrialized society decreased the share of industry in the GDP. "The post-industrialized countries have passed the turning point and therefore it is not difficult for them to comply with Kyoto Protocol requirements," added Mr. Illarionov. He said that these countries' per capita GDP was $15,000-16,000 while in Russia it was merely at $8,000.
He also noted that the link between carbon dioxide emission and global warming has not been proved, and that the protocol's policy was base on the global warming factor.
"The Kyoto Protocol is drawing on the most brazen interference in humanity's economic growth and development, and it can be compared to fascism," said Mr. Illarionov.
