On October 14, expedition 10 will go to the International Space Station (ISS). Russian Salizhan Sharipov and American Leroy Chiao passed the pre-flight exam and now know what to do in orbit if they are sick, have a severe eye injury, or have problems with an oxygen generator.
The crew is clearly well-trained and ready to work for as long as it takes, however the ISS program could change soon and result in unpredictable consequences.
First, there are problems with the Russian Electron oxygen generator. In early September, one of the generator's units broke and the other two may break soon. If that occurs, the crew will have to use the station's oxygen reserve.
On October 14, the Soyuz-TM carrying the new crew to the station will not be carrying additional oxygen equipment, but it will contain spare parts for repairing the Electron.
A spaceship carrying reserve oxygen and food will be launched from the Baikonur space center on December 23. If the oxygen generator cannot be repaired or the launch of the cargo spaceship is postponed, the station will be evacuated.
NASA's policy is that the crew must leave the station when the oxygen reserve goes down to 45 days, in other words, at the end of December. How long will it take to organize a new expedition and complete all repair work? How long can the ISS survive without a crew? No one knows the answer to these questions.
However, even if this pessimistic scenario does not happen, the ISS program will change because, on the one hand, the mood of the main participants in the project differs and, on the other hand, it is unknown when the US space shuttles will resume flights.
Anatoly Perminov, director of Russia's Federal Space Agency, made a statement in early August 2004, noting that Russia was resuming construction of its ISS segment. Most importantly, Perminov said: "Russia will fulfill all its obligations as regards the delivery of integrated ISS crews and their subsequent stay by January 1, 2005. It is our position that if the Americans want to fly on Soyuz in 2005, they will have to pay compensation for Soyuz-launch expences."
Nevertheless, Perminov's statement is based on the confidence that the American shuttle will be put back into operation quickly.
Indeed, NASA officials plan to launch the first shuttle to the ISS after the Columbia accident early next spring. Addressing a press conference at the cosmonaut-training center near Moscow on September 23, NASA spokeswoman Melissa Mathews noted that a launch window will remain open from March 6 to April 18, 2005.
NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe said that he hoped shuttle flights would resume next spring. His statement means that a launch date had not been set yet.
First, NASA officials are divided on shuttle safety issues. Therefore, the projected spring shuttle launch will become a test flight to analyze all subsequent shuttle launches.
Second, the financial aspects are still unclear. In early August, NASA officials said resuming shuttle flights would cost $900 million more than planned and that NASA would ask Congress for additional funding.
The congressional reaction to this request will be known later, however in mid-July the House of Representatives decided to cut the Bush administration's 2005 space program appropriations by $1.1 billion, that is, beginning on October 1, 2004.
Most likely, the United States will be forced to use Soyuz spaceships and pay for each flight. However, how does the United States plan to pay Moscow, without overruling the federal ban on financing the Russian space industry? And how can Russia complete its ISS segment if American space shuttles do not regularly fly to the station and if it has to service the station?
Happily, the new ISS crew did not have to answer these questions during the pre-flight exam.
