The document authors note that today Russia is in seventh place in the world in terms of the oil reserves volume, and is second in terms of oil exports, following Saudi Arabia. According to IAE experts' forecasts, by 2010, Russian deliveries will total over 15% of the volume of the world oil market, and by 2030, they will reduce to 10%, which approximately corresponds to the present level.
Russia's positions in the sphere of natural gas look even more solid, as here, Russia is a world leader, both in terms of production and exportation. In the opinion of agency experts, Russia, whose share totals 26% of the world reserves of natural gas, will preserve the leading positions by 2030 as well.
All this, believe the report authors, is evidence that Russia "will play a growing role in deliveries of and world trade in" hydrocarbons, which will inevitably "be decisive for the world energy security."
The IEA experts note that this process has a reverse side too: not only will the world market of energy carriers depend on Russia, but Russia itself may start to depend more and more on this market.
In this connection, the report authors express fears that in case the world oil prices sharply fall, Russia may try to influence the market, coordinating with OPEC the reduction of production.
To avoid an extreme dependence on the world prices for energy carriers, Russia should more actively follow the path of diversification of its economy, warn the report authors. From their point of view, this is also necessary because the high rates of oil production growth are forecasted to slow down in the years to come.
Now, remind the IEA experts, Russia produces 9.1million bpd, which corresponds to the 1991 level. In the years to come, they forecast, the growth will continue, and by 2010, it will reach a 10.4 million barrel mark. After that, the oil production level will practically stabilize and by 2020 it will total some 10.8 million bpd.
As for the gas sector, the IEA experts believe that "gigantic resources will make it possible to increase production in the future too and to not only provide for the internal demand, but to boost exports to Europe and new Asian markets."
However, note the report authors, the condition for such a development of events is "massive inflow of investments to absolutely new projects," which are to replace the present deposits. To ensure the interest on the part of foreign investors, it's necessary to open the Russian market and raise the internal prices for gas, say IEA experts.
They also believe that the aim to double the Russian GDP in 10 years is hardly achievable. In the experts' opinion, to realize this goal, the annual rates of economic growth must exceed 7%, and this will be hard to achieve if from 2006 the world prices for oil and gas go down, in line with the agency forecasts.
