Kommersant
Tatarstan President Openly Opposes President Putin's Reform
Yesterday, the parliament of Tatarstan, one of Russia's largest national republics, labeled the reform initiated by Vladimir Putin as anti-democratic and anti-constitutional, and the attempt to push it through the State Duma as "a state coup", Kommersant reports. The republic's president Mintimer Shaimiyev supported the legislature and said that Tatarstan would make a number of demands before the second reading of the corresponding bill in the State Duma. The first would be eliminating the clause that allows the Russian president to dissolve local legislatures if they reject his candidates two times.
Mr. Shaimiyev became the first regional leader to openly oppose the president's reform to abolish gubernatorial elections.
According to Mr. Shaimiyev, democratic principles can only be preserved if regional heads are elected by a regional parliament, not "given powers." At the same time, "it does not matter how deputies are elected, by party lists or some other way, but they are elected by the people, and we must not agree in any way or under any conditions to the dissolution of our parliament," he emphasized. Simultaneously, the Tartar deputies want to suggest a statute of limitations for the law, which, they believe, should be canceled immediately after Putin's presidential term.
The presidential administration cannot ignore the opinion of one of the most influential regional leaders, because it threatens to split United Russia, as Mr. Shaimiyev is co-chairman of the Supreme Council. Other governors that are party members may follow suit and speak against Mr. Putin's initiatives. On the other hand, Mr. Shaimiyev's amendments to the project will put the reform under a question mark, as there is a risk that unmanageable parliaments will emerge as a result.
Vremya Novostei
What Will Appointed Governors Be Like?
On Friday, the State Duma will consider in the first reading a bill that changes the procedure for electing regional governors (they will be appointed by local legislatures after the Russian president suggests his candidates). At a roundtable titled "New Political Reality," political experts tried to decide what appointed governors would be like, Vremya Novostei writes.
Konstantin Simonov, director of the Political Environment Center, believes that "regional heads will have to become professional managers," as "the project of economic modernization Putin announced during the 2004 election campaign needs efficient management mechanisms."
"The economic recovery of the regions is impossible without serious anti-crisis moves," an expert pointed out. However, Pavel Kochanov, a leading analyst with the Standard & Poor's rating agency, doubts that the president's scheme for appointing governors will solve the problem. "Appointed regional heads will be officials, not city managers," he said. "The system being built, what we call the vertical of power, is not a friendly environment for managers, people who are used to taking responsibility for important decisions."
Vyacheslav Glazychev, head of the Strategic Studies Center in the Volga Federal District defined a perfect governor as "the head of an office," a person who ensures a good climate in the region for solving economic problems. Managing the economy is not a governor's task, although in recent years regional governors have been engaged in it.
Maksim Dianov, the head of the Regional Problems Institute, suggested that regional governors would most probably "solve organizational issues and appoint personnel in the region." At least, this is how local elites will perceive them. Experts believe that lobbyists of regional interests in the federal center will make the most successful politicians.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Experts on Khodorkovsky Trial
The main figure in the "Yukos case," the company'sformer chief executive officer Mikhail Khodorkovsky, was arrested exactly a year ago. Nezavisimaya Gazeta asked Russian politicians and journalists to comment on the possible outcome of the Khodorkovsky trial.
Irina Khakamada, co-chairperson of the 2008: Free Choice committee, believes that this trial has already had global consequences for Russia. For instance, medium capital is leaving this country either legally or illegally. Negative capital growth has been posted since Mr. Khodorkovsky's arrest, with capital-flight volumes exceeding capital influx. Ms. Khakamada is 100% sure that Khodorkovsky will be found guilty, and though she is not a professional, she believes he might be sentenced to four to ten years in prison.
This will be a two-stage affair, Mikhail Delyagin, member of the Rodina party's political council and chief of its program committee, said. First of all, news about Mr. Khodorkovsky will become quite routine, like an ordinary weather forecast, and then he will be sentenced. As I see, Mr. Delyagin said, he will have to serve six or seven years in prison.
We already know what will happen to Yukos, Moskovsky Komsomolets analyst Mark Deich said. Instead of going under, the company will be divided into several entities, with its owners changing hands. To my mind, the Khodorkovsky trial will last for quite a while (maybe a year) and he will obviously be found guilty. Still I get the impression that this particular court will heed various extenuating circumstances, such as Khodorkovsky's awards, etc. Consequently, the court verdict will be quite appropriate; taking his current prison term into account, he will be released.
If it is an open and transparent trial, it will highlight Russia's ineffective law-enforcement and judicial system, Ella Pamfilova, chairperson of the presidential human-rights commission, noted. First of all, this will provide the president with a pretext for resolutely overhauling this system and replacing its topofficials, and, if Khodorkovsky is convicted, a chance to display his humanity and pardon him.
Vedomosti
Yukos Set To Bankrupt Itself
The seven foreigners members on the eleven-seat Yukos board of directors have announced that the management of the Russian oil giant must declare itself voluntarily bankrupt on the day the authorities announce the sale of Yuganskneftegaz, the company's main production arm.
Talking to Vedomosti, a Yukos spokesperson noted that foreign directors had raised the voluntary-bankruptcy issue because Yuganskneftegaz might be sold for an artificially low price.
Yukos articles of association state expressly that the corporate management alone can file a bankruptcy lawsuit with a court of arbitration, but the board of directors has no right to order the management to act in this manner. At the same time, board members are saying openly that this move is untimely. "I believe a bankruptcy decision is just as premature as speculation to the effect that we have already lost Yuganskneftegaz," Alexander Temerko, a senior Yukos vice-president, noted.
Moreover, the corporate management fears that it might be accused of fraudulent bankruptcy. A Vedomosti source in the Justice Ministry did not rule out such developments, noting that the court of arbitration could reject a Yukos claim for voluntary bankruptcy.
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, which evaluated Yuganskneftegaz as a separate enterprise, estimates its total price at $18.6-21.1 billion. However, court bailiffs suggested selling 100% of Yuganskneftegaz voting shares, which total 76.8% of the company's authorized capital, for just $3-4 billion, i.e. equal to the Yukos tax arrears. The Russian Federal Property Fund (RFFI) has not yet set the relevant auction deadline or the initial bidding price. The auction may take place in late December, RFFI spokesman Vladimir Zelentsov said.
Izvestia
Bush better for Russia than Kerry
According to recent polls,52% of Russian citizens support the candidacy of George Bush as new American President. It is the highest rating among people from the ten countries that participated in the poll. Financial analysts believe this choice is rational because a Bush victory would promise high dividends to Russian business and society, Izvestia reports.
The political explanation for Russians' support for Bush is mainly pragmatic: cooler relations between the U.S. and Europe will facilitate the conclusion of treaties between Russia and America, and the growing tension between the U.S. and China (Bush is a staunch supporter of Taiwan's sovereignty) will create favorable diplomatic conditions for Russia in that area, as well.
At the same time, hidden behind far-reaching geopolitical plans are rather specific economic interests of Russian business. Renaissance Capital experts believe that a Bush victory promises huge profits for Russian metallurgy, the power energy industry, alternative and mobile communication operators, airlines, shipping companies, and mineral fertilizer producers.
According to Erich Krauze, an analyst from Sovlink investment, Mr. Bush is better for Russia because his policies lead to significant increase in oil prices.
Russian operators of fixed telecommunication networks, arms exporters and LUKoil executives, on the contrary, are more interested in a Kerry victory, suggest experts from Renaissance Capital.
Analysts explain that fixed telecommunication networks operators are not happy with the demands of the Republican administration on the de-monopolization of the telecommunications market in Russia before it joins the WTO. Russian arms exporters hope for a potential chance thanks to Mr. Kerry's willingness to consider the opinion of other countries during the establishment of a world order. LUKoil executives expect a more favorable attitude toward their projects in Iraq, which suffered significantly as a result of the Republicans' unilateral world outlook.
