It is believed that Hamid Karzai owes his victory to active U.S. and EU support. But it is not exactly right. One can say that Karzai won in spite of this help. Afghan society is too sensitive to its elect being a toy in someone's hands. His opponents played upon this as much as they could.
Certainly, most Afghans regard Hamid Karzai as a U.S. protege. Further U.S. investments in Afghanistan are associated with his victory. The United States is the key investor in the restoration of Afghanistan's economy and state structure. If Karzai heads the state we shall have money - many people kept this in mind going to polling stations. However, there are much more important factors in Karzai's victory that ordinary people could not neglect.
Above all, Hamid Karzai created a wider political and social basis for his victory. Since his appointment to the post of the interim administration head, Karzai pursued domestic policy aimed at stability in the country. This policy let many Afghans, including former Talibs and Communists, get settled in modern life. As a matter of fact, he set a course for national reconciliation and gained support of various strata of the population.
His policy aimed at the disarmament of Mujahedins was highly popular with Afghan people suffering from their outrages. One Afghan woman told the author of this article that she voted for Karzai because he is unarmed while his rivals represented various military-political organizations of Mujahedins. They relied on Mujahedin solidarity and anti-Americanism. However, these aspects are not popular in Afghanistan today. Representatives of Kabul intelligentsia believe that Mujahedins lost these elections already in 1992 when they laid Kabul in ruins. At the moment most Afghans share this position. But will this support be enough to let Karzai implement his program?
At the moment Hamid Karzai possesses the best qualities to unite the split country. Meanwhile, there is no comparison between the difficulty of his victory at the elections and the problems he has to solve. All problems of modern Afghanistan remain. The Afghan nation is not united still. It is a kind of a shaky coalition. Each ethnic group (Pushtus, Tajiks, Uzbeks, etc.) voted for its own leader.
We can already see the first signs of domestic aggravation in Afghanistan. The revival of the Pushtu radical party Afghan Mellat immediately caused the revival of its antipode, Setam-e Melli (National Oppression), a radical party of non-Pushtu ethnic groups. However, the party changed its name for a neutral one, National Congress.
Tensions between Mujahedins and non-Mujahedins keep escalating. The former are dissatisfied with the loss of positions in the top brass. Hamid Karzai (under pressure of his sponsors, the United States and the European Union) relies on professionals in his staff policy, mainly technocrats (westerners and communists). Obviously, further escalation of political and social tensions is inevitable in the near future.
In this situation Hamid Karzai should be able to form a government representing all ethnic groups and not depending on regional leaders. The problem of the establishment of the generally acknowledged power in Afghanistan has not been solved yet. Moreover, Afghanistan's experience shows that this task cannot be accomplished by purely administrative ways. A common goal and participation of all Afghan people is needed in this case.
Will Hamid Karzai prove by the beginning of the parliamentary elections that he can rule Afghanistan on the whole. Anyway, he needs regional support. Karzai's refusal to form a coalition with regional leaders in the government does not mean that he burnt his bridges. Karzai holds interesting moves in store. For instance, he can let opposition leaders prove that they can be selfless supporters of civil authority in the country. Besides, he can appoint representatives of the opposition in charge of consolidation of the central power and implementation of the DDR (disarmament, demobilization and reintegration) and anti-drug programs in the regions where they gained most of the vote at the elections.
