Moscow and other capitals view the replacement of the dove-like Colin Powell with the hard-bargaining Condoleezza Rice, as well as tough guys such as Vice-President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld not only remaining in the cabinet but also probably strengthening their positions, as a victory for the hard-liners in the US administration. But, unlike many others, Moscow does not expect any dramatic, let alone insurmountable, problems in relations with Washington.
New people bring new ideas. But in the past four years, the US and Russia have hammered out such a crucial agenda, while Mr. Bush and Vladimir Putin have come to believe each other's sincerity so strongly, that the former's second term will certainly see their strategic partnership grow. In this situation, US leader's new team, however hard it may be, will hardly risk abandoning the principle of continuity in relations with Russia.
It is true that Moscow will bid a tearful goodbye to Mr. Powell. Back in Soviet times, he was highly valued here for his deep understanding of Russian specifics. Mr. Powell, who was national security adviser to Ronald Reagan and chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under George Bush Sr. and Bill Clinton, invariably played the role of the "clear head" at Soviet-American talks.
The four-star general never demanded the impossible from Moscow. Even his ill-designed address to the UN on February 5, 2003, when he used the faked CIA photographs to justify the invasion of Iraq, did not severely damage his unblemished reputation among the Russian political elite.
Sergei Oznobishchev, director of the Moscow Institute of Strategic Assessment, recalls: "As he was a professional, Secretary of State Powell was ashamed of the situation in Iraq and of being made a laughing stock in the UN." This made Mr. Powell put a greater distance between himself and the advocates of "the new American century" on the Bush team. But these differences resulted in the dismissal of the 65th Secretary of State, many Russian experts on US affairs believe.
Nobody knows in what other dead-ends the Iraqi venture could have taken the US if not for the position of Colin Powell, a balanced and cautious advocate of legal, peaceful methods. Russia sensed and highly valued his presence in the Bush administration.
But will Russia suffer from his dismissal? Hardly. Dr. Rice is well known to and rather well liked by the recent generations of Russian leaders. In December 1989, George Bush Sr. took the young member of the National Security Council to Mikhail Gorbachev. Meet Miss Rice, said the president. She taught me everything I know about the Soviet Union.
The fact that the new Secretary of State is a major Russia specialist who has taken part in all major US-Russian talks in the past four years largely guarantees the continuity of the two countries' strategic partnership. After all, by appointing Dr. Rice to this high post, which no black woman has held before, President Bush is showing that he is satisfied with the policy pursued by his administration during his first term. We should keep on going along the same road, he seems to be saying, including in respect to Russia.
Russian political scientists describe this as "the preservation of institutional memory during the transition from one US administration to another." In plain English, it means that Russia-US cooperation will continue as before. The two nations will fight international terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, work for the post-crisis reconstruction of Afghanistan and Iraq, and work together searching for ways to return the Middle East peace process to the routes outlined in the roadmap in a world without Arafat.
There are also other reasons to hope for continuity in Russia-US relations. I believe that Iraq has exposed the extreme boundaries of "the presumption of power" of Bush's first team. So, the selection of the new team by the-harder-the-better principle will not necessarily make US foreign policy harder. After being appointed to their new posts, the people we know will hardly want to step on the Iraqi rake in Iran, Syria and other countries. The US president did not like to admit mistakes during the election campaign, but his colleagues are realistic people, and they may want to correct US policy toward greater balance.
In other words, Mr. Powell has left, but his legacy may seriously influence the policy of his former political opponents.
One way or another, Russia has proved its worth as an important partner of the United States in the past years, a partner who, unlike others, does not prostrate itself before Washington or simply toe the line. Russia's stand is predictable but independent. And it hopes to apply this experience to relations with President Bush's new team, however hard-line it may be.
