Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Russia to arm Iraq
Russia may soon resume arms supplies to the Iraqi army (it supplied weapons from the 1970s to the 1990s). Colonel General Yuri Baluyevsky, the chief of Russia's General Staff, and US General James Jones, Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, have agreed on this. The Russian side will train Iraqi servicemen in using the equipment supplied, Gen. Baluyevsky assured his colleague. Arms supplies will be resumed if the Iraqi government asks Russia to give it military-technological assistance, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov confirmed yesterday.
Heavy armored equipment, infantry combat vehicles, armored personnel carriers, small-arms, mortars and guns, as well as ammunition of various caliber will probably be supplied to the Iraqi army, Alexander Shavarin, an expert of the Strategic Research Center, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
The expert believes the fact that there are many Soviet-made weapons in Iraq and the Iraqis know them well is one reason behind Moscow's decision: "Virtually all of the country's officers' corps has been trained in using Soviet-made weapons."
Colonel General Leonid Ivashov, a former head of the Russian Defense Ministry's department of international military cooperation, believes that about 200 Russian instructors may be dispatched to Iraq at the first stage. "This is how the arms supply mission in Syria and Egypt began," Gen. Ivashov stated. Andrew Kuchins, the director of the Moscow Carnegie Center, believes that the very fact that Russia is prepared to go to Iraq in a manner practically mimicking the North Atlantic alliance (NATO instructors are training Iraqi servicemen) will be welcomed by the Bush administration.
According to leaks from Washington, the newspaper writes, Russia has agreed to be involved in the Iraqi campaign in exchange for America recognizing the former Soviet Union as a zone of Russia's vital interests. The schemeof future arms supplies to Iraq has not yet been devised, though. Nor has it been coordinated between key departments.
Novye Izvestia/Vedomosti
Was the president's meeting with businessmen a mere formality?
Yesterday, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) met for its 14th congress in Moscow. The main intrigue of the meeting was whether Vladimir Putin would attend. The president did come and even stayed until the end of the first part of the session. In full appreciation of the honor, Novye Izvestia says, businessmen tactfully avoided the words "Yukos" and "Khodorkovsky."
Mr. Putin reminded businessmen about their social responsibility and urged them to join the solution of socio-economic problems in the North Caucasus. The audience approved of the president's words that officials should guarantee and protect private as well as state property. As for tax case prosecutions, the president said that nobody was going to look for a criminal in every businessman.
On the whole, businessmen and officials see yesterday's appearance as a purely formal event. One should not see Putin's words as specific instructions to businessmen, a Kremlin source said. "He simply named the main tasks facing the country," the Kremlin official said to Vedomosti. "Now it is up to businessmen to decide whether they can help the authorities or not."
However, businessmen are hurrying to promote business in the North Caucasus. "Of course, we can work out a business project for the south, for example, legalize vodka production. But who will want to do so?" one person present at the conference asked.
Businessmen themselves refuse to believe that Mr. Putin's remarks will motivate officials to meet business halfway. "We have become so servile that officials have stopped taking us seriously," complains a RSPP board member. "What the president says to us is nothing but empty words meant for public consumption." "When 70% of the population want tosee the oligarchs in prison, it is easier to keep a low profile and wait," another says.
"Communication between businessmen and the authorities in the RSPP format has been completely exhausted," says Stanislav Belkovsky, the president of the National Strategy Institute. In his opinion, major capitalists have lost interest in this organization. For example, Oleg Deripaska, RusAl's owner, Mikhail Fridman, an Alfa-Group co-owner, and Anatoly Chubais, chairman of Russia's Unified Energy Systems, chose not to attend the meeting.
Izvestia
Moscow's influence on elections in friendly countries will fail to produce desired results
The interim outcome of the Ukrainian presidential elections, just like the "interim" in the votes in Abkhazia (a self-proclaimed republic in Georgia), have cast doubts over Russia's influence on the election campaigns in these friendly countries, Izvestia reports.
Since Yeltsin's rule, the following stereotype has dominated Russia: television added to modern political technologies can solve any task in the interests of the person who owns them.
However, over this period, no parliamentary campaign managed to secure a majority for the parties in power in the legislature. In terms of a balance between spending and earning, they were loss making. In the cases when the victory alone was at stake (the referendum on the Constitution of 1993 and the presidential elections of 1996), the administrative resource played the crucial role.
Moreover, excessive pressure on people is often counter-productive and leads to protests. In Abkhazia, despite the overwhelming majority's aspiration to become part of Russia, Moscow's public support for one of the candidates - without any control at polling stations - only caused local residents to put up such slogans as "We Can Decide Ourselves", and turned the elections into a farce.
Many Ukrainians liked the candidacy of Viktor Yushchenko, the opposition leader, but considered himto be too weak to be president. If it had not been for Moscow (who actively supports Viktor Yanukovich), they might not have gone to vote at all. Now they are set to defend their candidate. This is how they reacted to the pressure.
Today, the paper reports, the administrative resource has lost its value and Moscow's campaign has fallen apart. Ironically, in Ukraine, and naturally Abkhazia, the Russian president is genuinely popular.
Vedomosti
Foreigners Resigned to Political Risks for Access to Russian Oil
Foreign investors still have different perceptions of Russia's political risks and the Yukos case.
Smaller oil companies have decided against investing in Russia. For example, America's Marathon Oil Corporation recently announced it was suspending investment in Russia, despite an earlier promise to invest $378 million in its 100%-owned subsidiary Khanty-Mansiysk Oil Corp., saying it the move was due to constant changes in the Russian tax sphere and political situation.
Larger companies are bolder. The French-Belgian oil major Total recently announced it was going to buy a blocking stake in Russia's largest independent gas producer, Novatek, for about $1 billion. A Total spokesman told Vedomosti that the company wanted to get a 52% stake in a project to develop the Vankorskoye field in the north of the Krasnoyarsk Territory and 60% in the neighboring Severno-Vankorskoye field. Investment in the two projects is estimated at $4.7 billion.
Russia is a world leader in oil production and has the largest natural gas reserves, so Royal Dutch/Shell is keen on expanding its presence in the country, a company spokesman, Andy Corrigan, said.
BP has already gained from a similar strategy. According to the British major's financial statements for the first nine months of 2004, without its Russian subsidiary, the company would have seen a 7% reduction in oil production. But owing to its Russian assets, the decline was only 4%.
The industry leaders' optimism is possibly based on certain state guarantees, analysts believe. Dmitry Shemetilo from Commerzbank Securities is positive that major foreign investment is made on approval of the country's leadership. This approval implies additional conditions. For example, ConocoPhillips, which recently won a 7.6% stake in LUKoil at a state auction, will lobby its Russian partner's interests in Iraq. According to the expert, the current political risks in Russia for major Western companies are minimal.
Vremya Novostei
Chechen Separatist Website May Work for a Long Time to Come
Less than a month after a Chechen separatist Web site, KavkazTsentr, was closed first in Lithuania and then in Finland, it has reappeared in Sweden.
It appeared on the server of a Swedish Internet provider, Port80 AB. The company's director, Jan Hamberg, said in an interview with Vremya Novostei that he did "not see anything illegal in opening this resource." He said his company worked "with various clients, and if they do not violate Swedish legislation, the company does not interfere with their work." In this case, Port80 AB does not have any complaints about the client, Mr. Hamberg emphasized, and, consequently, the site will continue operating in Stockholm until the Swedish authorities decide that its activities are illegal.
"The problem of KavkazTsentr is not political, but purely judicial," said Anna Ekmand from the Swedish Foreign Ministry's Russian department. It should not be resolved in the Swedish Justice Ministry, but in court. If Russia believes that the decision to open the site in Sweden contradicts international legislation, it should hire lawyers and contest the decision in court.
Yesterday, the Russian Foreign Ministry's press department said its official position was being drafted and had not been finally formulated. The FSB did not answer to a request to explain its stance on the situation. As a result, the reaction of the Russian authorities has so far amounted to a visit made by Russian Ambassador Nikolai Sadchikov to the Swedish Foreign Ministry to express concern over the Chechen separatist site's emergence in the country.
It seems that KavkazTsentr will remain in Sweden for a long time to come, as legal proceedings may take several years. Besides, the practice of diplomatic missions turning to court is unusual and it is not yet clear how it can be carried out.
