Among all CIS markets, the Ukrainian is the largest and most promising (with exception of the Russian market, of course). It is close to Russia and the most predictable of all. Many jobs in Russia's nuclear power, tool-making, publishing industries and even in defense industry depend on whether the Ukrainian market remains open to Russia and whether technological cooperation between the two countries continues. Therefore, Russia is an interested spectator at the current round of presidential elections in Ukraine.
If Victor Yanukovich is elected Ukrainian President, he will not seek isolation from Russia because it is not in the interest of Eastern and Southern Ukraine - the pillars of his support in the republic. Probably, the pressure on the Russian language will diminish. His election will not stop the shift toward NATO and the EU, although the latter would not become the sole focus of Ukraine's foreign policy, either.
As to Victor Yuschenko, the prognosis becomes more difficult. The team of his supporters is too diverse. In addition, he stayed away from the reigns of power for quite a while. The closest entourage of the candidate consists mainly of rational pragmatists. The do not fear Russia or the Russian language. They simply believe that dealing with the West is more profitable, and the English language is more important than Russian. However, there is another group of Victor Yuschenko's supporters - prominent romantic ideologists, who have been waging "cold war" against Russia for 14 years.Russia has been ignoring this war for the most part - sometimes, Russian Foreign Ministry would simply scold them for closing Russian schools, or Russian journalists would complain about pushing Russian media out of the Ukrainian information market.
In case of Yuschenko's victory such ideologists, most probably, will not be assigned key posts. They will be given control over "unimportant" areas - education, culture, and the media. They will use these instruments to shift public opinion toward accession to NATO and the EU. However, the access to the "power club," whether it is NATO or the EU, does not guarantee that the newcomer will automatically become powerful, as well.
On the other hand, both Russia and Ukraine need economies that feed on the remains of the Soviet economy. They should be oriented on the future scientific and technological breakthrough. Russia and Ukraine need close cooperation, because taken apart when the entire world heads toward globalization they become too weak.
According to data collected by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, the results of public polls on TV debates between Ukrainian presidential candidates show 45% of respondents believed that Victor Yuanukovich won the debates, 34% thought that Victor Yuschenko was the winner. The rest of the respondents considered the results of the debates a draw. The majority of the respondents thought that Mr. Yanukovich was stronger on issues of social policy, internal and external politics, while Mr. Yuschenko showed his strength in economic sphere.
According to the results of the poll conducted by Socis center (Ukraine), 38.8% of the respondents believed that Mr. Yanukovich won the debates, and 35.6% -- Mr. Yuschenko. 42.6% said they liked Mr. Yanukovich better, and 42% preferred Mr. Yuschenko. 4.8% changed their opinion about the candidates after the TV debates. At the same time, 48% of the respondents believe that the debates did not influence their original opinion.
Overall, both presidential candidates have, basically, equal chances to win the second round of elections in Ukraine. Russia is eagerly awaiting the results of the elections, and it seems that the Russians became excited fans of the second round.
