"These elections can be held on the fixed date [January 30], however, it will be a symbolic event because the voting can take place only in the regions controlled by the U.S. forces and their allies," Mr. Arbatov noted.
"Those who organize the elections will name those who will be able to participate in them. Naturally, oppositionists will not be admitted to voting. The more the Iraqi authorities are involved in preparations for the elections, the more biased and undemocratic they will be because the country is not ready for democracy yet," the expert stressed. In his opinion, any free elections without the presence of occupation forces will result in a civil war.
"In the conditions of free elections Shiites (60% of the population) will win and take all the key posts in Iraq. It will depend on their good will whether other groups of the population will be admitted to the government or not. Neither Sunnites nor Kurds will agree to this. They will acknowledge the elections illegitimate. The elections held under the control of occupation forces is a profanity," Alexei Arbatov said.
The expert believes that Russia should send its observers to the elections in Iraq.
In his opinion, Russia could gain certain profit if it does not take a critical stance on the forthcoming elections in Iraq.
"We are interested in cooperation with the United States but our active assistance and participation in this profanity makes no sense because we shall lose face in the Islamic world. Americans invaded Iraq and cannot easily withdraw from this country, especially, after the Republican victory. They ask Russia for help and we can make a pragmatic deal. We shall not criticize the elections if they agree to compromises in other spheres. We can beneficially exchange our neutral position on this issue for concessions in other important spheres," Alexei Arbatov said.
