It would seem that Russia should rejoice at the news that Ukraine's Central Election Commission has declared Viktor Yanukovych the winner of the presidential election race, because the country backed this candidate who appears to stick to the pro-Russia line. But there is no certainty that the victory may not lead to major problems for the Russian economy.
If the situation is viewed through the prism of Russian business interests, neither Mr. Yanukovych nor his rival Viktor Yushchenko presents any particular interest. But let us reverse the perspective. What would Russia gain if the latter were to come to power?
Formal inter-state economic relations between Russia and Ukraine would most likely be preserved. Ukraine would as in the past need Russian gas, oil and other energy sources. But new economic projects with certain political components attached would inevitably be put into doubt. Plans to build a bridge or a tunnel from the Crimea to Russia across the Kerch Strait would be the first to die a quiet death.
The political mood of Yushchenko loyalists suggests that this candidate, if he were to be installed in office, would start persecuting his opponents' supporters. And in a series of punitive measures he could order an economic re-division in the country, further complicating conditions for business in the eastern regions. That is to say, very large Ukrainian enterprises might find themselves out of favor, including those such as the MotorSICH motor building plant in Zaporozhye, defense sector plants in Dniepropetrovsk, and, of course, Donetsk companies.
These are the very enterprises that work in close tandem with their Russian opposite numbers. These are the remnants of integration chains that have survived since Soviet days. Today, they are bitterly fighting for outlets with Western producers. Meanwhile, Russian weapons are only of any interest on foreign markets if they are developed with Ukrainian enterprises. And vice versa. This forward-looking trend needs state support most now. But with a pro-western leader in place, these plants would be the first to suffer. Clearly, in all cases when a Western investor could be preferred, Mr. Yushchenko would opt for it. This, naturally, would sour talks with Russia to set up a consortium to ship gas to Europe. Evidently, all the projects on a common economic space would be left in mid-air.
But one cannot entertain any illusions about Mr. Yanukovych either. True, Russia rallied behind him in the election. Special economic preferences were introduced in his name to back up a single unified economic space involving Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. But whether he will remain as zealous an advocate of Russia as he promised, is under a big question mark.
Most likely energy problems and defense sector projects, and labor market issues will be solved in collaboration with Russia. But one need not expect Mr. Yanukovych to line up fully behind Russia.
Mr. Yanukovych, to be accepted in the West, will have to demonstrate some loyalty to his rivals of yesterday. It is quite possible that he will also have to move to meet the EU and America half way. But will they want to deal with a man of his reputation? The West may boycott him, leaving Ukraine as a second Belarus. In this situation, stripped of his ability to maneuver with the West, Mr. Yanukovych could start copying Alexander Lukashenko while paying lip service to Russia, but actually pursuing his own domestic policy. This would leave Russia with an additional burden on its budget. It has placed its bets too squarely on Mr. Yanukovych and he has reason to ask for extra aid. It means the Russian taxpayers could end up paying for the unpopular president's moves with their own money.
The prospects for Russian business, once Mr. Yanukovych is in office, are no less disquieting. Take again the example of Belarus. Does Mr. Lukashenko allow any freedom for Russian businessmen? It is also known that Mr. Yanukovych has the so-called "Donetsk clan" behind him. Its interests bear on and are even at cross-purposes with those of Russian companies. There have already been instances when Donetsk men ousted Russian businessmen from Ukraine. In a word, Russia would not be able to relax with such a neighbor, since, as before, a balance of interests will be played upon.
