Vremya Novostei
Ukrainian Authorities Could Field New Candidate
Yesterday's meeting in Kiev between the Ukrainian authorities, the opposition and international mediators was quite a success. Six compromises were reached. The sides agreed to rule out the use of force to solve the problems that emerged after the presidential election run-off. A decision was also made to end the blockades of government buildings: the opposition's supporters picketing them promised to leave. Three other points were on launching political reforms that would give more powers to parliament, preserving Ukraine's territorial integrity and measures to stabilize the economic situation, Vremya Novostei reports.
In addition, an expert group will be set up to propose how to complete presidential elections. The basis for this decision should be a ruling from the Supreme Court, where opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko has filed a complaint, as he considers the election was rigged.
"There is a version in political circles that the authorities are considering a model when both leaders drop out of the race in favor of a single candidate put forward by the authorities and untarnished by scandal," says political expert Alexander Litvinenko. "One such potential candidate is former chairman of the National Bank Sergei Tigipko." However, it will hardly be possible to present him as an independent candidate distanced from the authorities, because he was Mr. Yanukovich's campaign manager. Mr. Litvinenko says that speaker Vladimir Litvinov, who is now gaining political authority, could be a more successful candidate, "The fact that Rada [parliament] under him remains the center of legality impresses the opposition and inspires trust in voters in eastern regions [that support Mr. Yanukovich]."
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder also spoke in favor of new elections in Ukraine during a telephone conversation yesterday with Vladimir Putin. Itis the only solution the political impasse, the German leader said.
Novye Izvestia
Governors Bill Adopted In Second Reading
Regional legislatures will have three instead of two attempts to endorse a governor (if they reject the president's candidate three times, the parliament is dissolved). Incumbent elected governors may be re-appointed before their terms of office are over. The Russian State Duma yesterday adopted these amendments to the president's bill to abolish gubernatorial elections.
Independent deputy Vladimir Ryzhkov yesterday urged the Duma to remove the clause on dissolving parliaments, citing a deputy from the Tartar parliament, who said, "If you want another Chechnya, vote for dissolution." Viktor Grishin, the chairman of the Duma committee for the federation's affairs and regional policies and a member of United Russia, replied, "The bill makes no sense without the [provision on] dissolution. It is not a form of punishment, but a way to resolve a conflict."
Yesterday, 337 deputies voted for the amendment that may see incumbent governors voluntarily give up their powers. It means that a governor elected before the law was adopted can raise the question with the president, who will have to decide within seven days whether to back the governor's candidacy in the legislature.
In its current form the law received 357 votes, from United Russia, the LDPR and most of the Homeland faction. Against were the Communists, seven Homeland deputies and ten independents. In the third, final reading the law will be adopted tomorrow before being sent to the Federation Council next week. The president will then sign it and it will be published officially. Consequently, it may enter into force before the end of the year.
Vedomosti
Gref Puts a Damper on Gazprom Oil Expansion
When speaking in the lower house of parliament yesterday, Economic Development and Trade Minister German Gref lashed out at Gazprom, saying in particular that he did not consider it right "for the state to build up a presence in market sectors." A day earlier he had intervened in a board meeting of the company to prevent a discussion dedicated to buying Yuganskneftegaz (Yukos's main production unit).
A source told Vedomosti that when the directors came to discuss a loan for Gazprom to buy Yugansk, Mr. Gref, presidential chief of staff Dmitry Medvedev and Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller retired for a meeting. An hour later they returned and asked for a postponement.
Mr. Gref, according to the source, expressed misgivings that after buying Yuganskneftegaz, Gazprom could be showered with legal claims from Yukos shareholders and for that reason the government should give the monopoly some guarantees. Besides, the minister was worried that Gazprom, in an effort to make funds available to purchase Yugansk, had cut back capital outlays by nearly 100 billion rubles ($1 = 28.01 rubles) and is planning to borrow billions of dollars from international banks.
A number of top-ranking officials secretly back the minister. A source in the presidential administration believes that functionaries on the Gazprom board heeded Mr. Gref because "they fear assuming responsibility" and first want to get the go-ahead for the deal from the government.
But analysts do not doubt that the official green light will be given. It is very unlikely that Gazprom would have acted at cross-purposes with the government and the Kremlin, says Renaissance Capital analyst Ron Smith. If a cabinet meeting approves Gazprom's investment program for 2005, which includes buying Yugansk, that will mean the green light for the monopoly, he said.
Vremya Novostei
Experts On Causes of Economic Slowdown
Current trends in the Russian economy leave one looking to the future with pessimism. This is the conclusion, Vremya Novostei notes, that can be drawn from the speeches made by those attending a Democratic Alternative club meeting on the subject: "The Russian Economy: A Pause or Stagnation?"
The Russian authorities' political decisions that have proven detrimental to the economy are to blame for slower industrial production and GDP growth, thinks Yevsei Gurvich, head of the Group of Economic Experts. Calculations made by his group show that GDP growth in 2004 (considering favorable economic conditions in the world) could well have reached 9%, whereas the real figure will be only between 6.3% and 6.5%.
The main reason is a slowdown in investment. This has happened due to changes to economic policy, which in its present form does not consolidate property rights and fails to screen out ineffective market players by supporting effective ones. Yukos is an example of how property is handled. If Gazprom were to win at an auction selling Yuganskneftegaz, it would mean that a less productive unit had absorbed a more efficient one. "Over the past four years, the oil sector has outpaced GDP, whereas the gas industry fell behind," Mr. Gurvich recalled. "In this way, non-market mechanisms are now at work in the opposite direction to what a market economy requires. So there are no evident grounds for the Russian economy's sustained growth," the expert concluded.
Yevgeny Gavrilenkov, Troika Dialog chief economist, also explains the downturn in investments by an increased withdrawal of money from the economy and a greater tax burden. "The withdrawals have been made on such a scale that no capital is left to accumulate in the private financial system, which is acting as a brake on growth," he says. "If the withdrawal mechanism is preserved, next year we may see elements of instability in the financial sphere."
Kommersant/Vremya Novostei
Russia declares Abkhazian blockade
Yesterday, Gennady Bukayev, an aide to the Russian prime minister, announced that railway traffic between Moscow and Sukhumi would be halted and threatened to seal the border with Abkhazia completely, Kommersant reports.
According to the aide, these measures are aimed against "the political intriguers who are greedy for power and who are leading the republic to civil war."
Sergei Bagapsh, the opposition candidate, who the Central Election Commission declared the winner of the presidential elections in the self-proclaimed republic, has said: "I think we will make public the full text of Gennady Bukayev's statement on Abkhazian television. We will let the people know who is really destabilizing the situation in Abkhazia."
Recently, Anatoly Otyrba, a spiritual leader of the Abkhazian opposition and famous publicist, told Georgian journalists, "certain forces in Moscow are preparing to surrender Abkhazia to Georgia through Khadzhimba, and this is why they so insistently want to make him president, as they believe he will obey any order from Moscow."
According to Vremya Novostei, Mr. Bukayev's statement was the last warning for the Abkhazians: if Mr. Bagapsh is inaugurated on December 6, Russia will seal the border and stop paying Russian pensions to the elderly living in the self-proclaimed republic.
All these transparent hints are meant first of all for Mr. Bagapsh. The railway has been blocked, but in vain. Then, an offensive was launched on the tangerine front, the main export for the Abkhazian people. After the war for independence ended in 1992-1993, the self-proclaimed republic of Abkhazia has survived in an economic blockade. In these circumstances, revenues from fruit exports to Russia and Russian tourists coming to the area have been the main financial sources of the republic. According to reports from Abkhazia, Mr. Bukayev's statement and the tangerine blockade have prompted some Abkhazians to demonstrably tear up their Russian passports in protest.
