On November 29 (the latest available statistics), TNK-BP's average daily output exceeded its rivals for the first time. On that day, the company produced 231,900 metric tons of oil, outpacing LUKoil and Yukos (which produced 231,700 tons each).
Explaining the company's success in an interview to Vedomosti, a TNK-BP spokesman said it was down to new technologies and major investment totaling $1.3-1.4 bln.
"TNK-BP is most likely the industry's new leader," says Dmitry Lukashov, an analyst with Aton investment. LUKoil could rival its leadership, according to Mr. Lukashov, "[but it] has been growing slower." This year the company plans to increase output by 7%, while TNK-BP plans a 12% increase. In reality, the expert believes growth will "most likely be no less than 15%," while he added that Yukos would soon cease to be a leading company.
Only Gazpromneft may outstrip TNK-BP, after the former acquires Yuganskneftegaz. However, even if it does, Gazpromneft is unlikely to do so in the next two to three years, says analyst Valery Nesterov of Troika Dialog. "Gazpromneft's growth rate will hardly be impressive, and it is unlikely to reach the 7% level (which TNK-BP plans for 2007). The change of Yuganskneftegaz's ownership may lead to problems in its operation, Mr. Nesterov warns. Yugansk greatly depends on Yukos, which sells some of its oil to its own refineries, he explains.
TNK-BP was established in September 2003 and belongs on a parity basis to British Petroleum and a consortium of the Alfa Group and Access/Renova. TNK-BP owns a 96% stake in TNK, 50% of the shares in Slavneft, 99% in ONAKO, and 82% in Sidanko, as well as the Rospan (100%) and RUSIA Petroleum (62%) natural gas facilities, and a network of filling stations.
