PREVENTING DISASTERS FROM SPACE

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MOSCOW (Space Research Institute expert Yury Zaitsev for RIA Novosti) - In the last few years, natural disasters have become more frequent and caused more damage. Undesirable and dangerous processes are triggered by the environmental damage caused by technological progress. Natural disasters and accidents like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, forest fires and pipeline accidents can be predicted and, in some cases, even prevented. Data from space is essential to solve these problems. After the tragic December 1988 earthquake in Armenia, Soviet experts proposed developing an early-warning system consisting of space and ground equipment. At the time, the necessary equipment for the space part of the system was planned to be placed on the Mir space station and eventually be transferred to unmanned satellites. The spacecraft were to have been put into orbit by converted ballistic missiles. However, the Soviet Union collapsed and the program, like many others, was terminated. Nonetheless, the long-duration Mir, Salyut-6 and Salyut-7 missions helped amass experience in this field.

In short, the space stations served as a testing site for developing remote-sensing systems. Such experiments are now being conducted on Russia's segment of International Space Station (ISS) as part of the Uragan (Hurricane) program. The goal of the program is to develop specific aspects of a disaster warning system. The program is focused on digital photos of the earth and monitoring all natural disasters and accidents.

The photographs taken from the ISS at an altitude of 380km cover an area of 10x15km, with a resolution of 5m and 20x30km, with a 10m resolution. Panoramic photos of the earth are also taken, however as the photographed area increases, the resolution decreases.

High resolution photographs are the most popular. Therefore magnifying optical systems are often used for these observations to ensure a three-meter resolution of the terrestrial surface. The restrictions of the station's orbital inclination to the equatorial plane limit the area the high-quality photographs can be taken to between the latitudes of 56 degrees north to 56 degrees south. This creates large blank spots in the research because the Arctic and Antarctic regions, which significantly influence the climate, are unable to be seen.

All experiments conducted on the Russian segment of the ISS must be coordinated with the United States and receive safety certificates. For example, a large amount of time has been spent trying to convince the Americans that taking photographs from the ISS's windows was safe. It was necessary to provide evidence that the crew members would not damage their eyes from solar radiation or from fragments of the window that might break off if a micro-meteorite hit it. These concerns were groundless because all observations are conducted when the window faces the earth.

Indeed, photographs transmitted to earth in real time are the most valuable in predicting disasters. The United States' communications channels were initially used for this purpose, relaying all data via the TDRS geostationary satellite. The photographs that required immediate analysis were sent to earth without any problems. However, after September 11 when cosmonauts photographed the tragedy, this no longer became possible because NASA established a special department comprising scientists who analyze all photographs taken by cosmonauts before they are sent on American communications channels. This censorship was not included in any agreements. Consequently, that communications channel basically stopped providing real time data. Russian tracking stations receive some photos when the ISS passes over them, however, most of the photographs are flown back on Soyuz spacecraft every six months).

There is another problem. After the space shuttle Columbia disaster, a full crew is not on the ISS, which has prevented research projects from being done. Work on the Uragan program is mostly done voluntarily on the weekends or during free time.

What has been accomplished over the last several years? The first ISS mission did work on the Uragan program that mostly included taking pictures of hydrocarbon deposit in Kazakhstan on the northeastern coast of the Caspian Sea. Technologically imperfect oil production, oil spills and removal of subterranean waters, in the area led to the formation of 1-2km in diameter oil and water lakes. Some of the lakes were surrounded by mounds of earth to prevent subsequent spills. However, the photographs from space show that the some of the dams have already been breached and oil is leaking into the sea. An environmental disaster is quickly approaching and it will affect not only the Kazakh, but also the Russian parts of the Caspian Sea before politicians agree to demarcate the body of water. The Aral Sea is also being monitored from the ISS. Observations show that the sea will disappear in the near future because the Amudarya and Syrdarya rivers are being drained. As the Aral Sea dries up, a new problem has been created: salt clouds from the bed have reached as far as Tashkent, Bukhara and Samarkand. Photographs from the ISS have documented this. The clouds are now moving in the direction of the South Urals and the Volga region. Aside from damaging crops, these salt clouds are also unhealthy.

The catastrophic floods that have been photographed in the North Caucasus, Central and Eastern Europe, China, India and Pakistan are evidence that disregard for nature and basic safety precautions can cause the greatest damage. Photographs from space provided important information about a avalanche that occurred in Karmadon gorge, North Ossetia, two years ago. Analysis of these photographs shows that a similar disaster could happen on the Pamir mountain range's Medvezhy (Bear) snowfield. Densely populated areas could be flooded if an avalanche flows into a nearby lake which would then cause the Pyandzh River to overflow.

Detailed photographs from the Russian ISS segment can also be used to monitor and help with the construction of roads, pipelines and tunnels. The Moscow authorities and Ukraine have agreed to build a multi-purpose bridge and underwater pipeline to supply water from the Kuban River to the Crimea. Photographs from the ISS will make it possible to analyze the environmental implications of construction project and conduct an objective safety inspection.

Overall, Russian methodologies enable space crews to monitor many natural processes and accidents. International co-production arrangements and the creation of an international disaster prediction system that would benefit humanity are feasible. The creation of such a system is particularly important because natural disasters and accidents that occur far away from each other are often more connected that than previously thought. An international space monitoring system will enable the optimal decision to be made for both regional and global problems.

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