Marat Gelman, a Russian political consultant, believes that Mr. Yushchenko "more likely won than lost" yesterday. Most importantly, he had the "third round" legalized. He will win that, later form his own majority in the Rada and have the amendments abolished. Ms. Timoshenko's exasperation, he said, stems from the fact that Mr. Yushchenko's compromise with Kuchma means she will not become premier.
"In reality, Mr. Yushchenko has lost," Stanislav Belkovsky, the president of the Russian National Strategy Institute, argues. "He had to reconcile himself with Viktor Yanukovich remaining premier, which is unacceptable for many of his supporters." The expert forecasts a fall in Mr. Yushchenko's popularity and a further deterioration in his relationship with Ms. Timoshenko, who may even lead a "new opposition" during his presidency. According to Mr. Belkovsky, Mr. Yushchenko will be incapable of rallying the elite behind him and ensuring that the constitutional reform is reversed.
"The Rada's decision benefits the opposition," believes Vadim Karasev, the head of the Ukrainian Institute of Global Studies. "If the crisis had been protracted, Mr. Yushchenko would have had to face the prospect of disrupted electionson December 26, which would have only played into the [outgoing] president's hands. People would have eventually got tired of the drawn out crisis."
"Mr. Yushchenko gave up a huge prize voluntarily," Viktor Nebozhenko, Ukrainian political expert, is convinced. In his words, the new president will have no majority in the Rada, which was formed by the outgoing authorities. As a result, the constitutional reform is a benefit for Mr. Kuchma, his chief of staff Viktor Medvedchuk, and parliamentary speaker Vladimir Litvin, the expert believes.
