A Russian government official familiar with the materials told Vedomosti that the forecast had been made until 2015. According to him, it took into account development strategies hastily drawn up by ministries for ten sectors of the economy. "However, neither the strategies, nor the high oil prices will help Russia double GDP even by 2012," the source says. According to him, the target figure of 7.3% GDP growth can be achieved after 2011, and GDP can be doubled by 2015. Two officials at the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade confirmed this. One said that, under the basic 2005 scenario, oil would cost $31 per barrel. However, oil prices only provide a background, as the content and the implementation of the sectoral strategies are the main factors in making the calculations.
However, there is a problem with these strategies. The ministry only approved the strategies of the agro-industrial complex and the aircraft industry. Six other strategies were sent back for more work, while the strategies of the oil and gas and transport industries have to be reviewed radically, the ministry's official said.
In the opinion of Yaroslav Lisovolik from the United Finance Group, Russia can only reach the trajectory needed for doubling GDP if it carries out several structural reforms, for example, de-bureaucratization and de-monopolization. However, the head of the analysis department at the Bank of Moscow, Kirill Tremasov, says that the state lacks the will for reform and fears that while fulfilling the president's instructions, the government might start investing the financial resources of the Stabilization Fund in infrastructure projects. "The main thing is that the government should refrain from great interventions in the economy if it fails to meet overstated obligations," Mr. Lisovolik warns.
