Vremya Novostei/Vedomosti
Will the opposition benefit from a compromise with Kuchma?
Outgoing Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma has ensured that his successor will have fewer powers. Yesterday, a Supreme Rada (parliament) majority adopted constitutional amendments, thereby transforming Ukraine into a parliamentary-presidential republic. In exchange for its support, the opposition led by Viktor Yushchenko received a law legalizing the "third round" of presidential elections. When speaking yesterday before protesters in Kiev, Mr. Yushchenko declared that the opposition had secured "a great victory." However, his closest associate, Yulia Timoshenko, promised to appeal the constitutional amendments in the courts. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti and Vremya Novostei have different views on the situation.
Marat Gelman, a Russian political consultant, believes that Mr. Yushchenko "more likely won than lost" yesterday. Most importantly, he had the "third round" legalized. He will win that, later form his own majority in the Rada and have the amendments abolished. Ms. Timoshenko's exasperation, he said, stems from the fact that Mr. Yushchenko's compromise with Kuchma means she will not become premier.
"In reality, Mr. Yushchenko has lost," Stanislav Belkovsky, the president of the Russian National Strategy Institute, argues. "He had to reconcile himself with Viktor Yanukovich remaining premier, which is unacceptable for many of his supporters." The expert forecasts a fall in Mr. Yushchenko's popularity and a further deterioration in his relationship with Ms. Timoshenko, who may even lead a "new opposition" during his presidency. According to Mr. Belkovsky, Mr. Yushchenko will be incapable of rallying the elite behind him and ensuring that the constitutional reform is reversed.
"The Rada's decision benefits the opposition," believes Vadim Karasev, the head of the Ukrainian Institute of Global Studies. "If the crisis had been protracted, Mr. Yushchenko would have had to face the prospect of disrupted elections on December 26, which would have only played into the [outgoing] president's hands. People would have eventually got tired of the drawn out crisis."
"Mr. Yushchenko gave up a huge prize voluntarily," Viktor Nebozhenko, Ukrainian political expert, is convinced. In his words, the new president will have no majority in the Rada, which was formed by the outgoing authorities. As a result, the constitutional reform is a benefit for Mr. Kuchma, his chief of staff Viktor Medvedchuk, and parliamentary speaker Vladimir Litvin, the expert believes.
Novye Izvestia
The parliament may become nothing but a "decorative cog," experts say
The State Duma is to consider a bill on new principles of its formation. According to the document, the lower house of the Russian parliament will be formed on the basis of party lists alone. The document establishes a 7% margin (instead of the current 5%) for parliamentarians, bans election blocs and reduces the number of parties that must be represented in the Duma from four to two. Moreover, ballots will no longer have the "against all candidates" option.
Alexander Ivanchenko, a former head of the election commission and now president of the Independent Election Institute, has commented on the new presidential initiatives in the following way: "This is the final accord in restoring the single party system and eliminating all the small parties. This is how the officials in the presidential administration understand the concept of the political system."
Mr. Ivanchenko also noted that cutting the minimum number of parties represented in the Duma to two provides for one dominating force, while the other party will merely fulfill a conventional role. According to the former election commission chairman, these measures were prompted by the deadlock in the latest regional elections, when the "against all candidates" option secured an indisputable victory. "If the multi-party system were to remain, United Russia would run the risk of failing to make it to the Duma at some point," he said. "Therefore, it will be kept there artificially."
Dmitry Oreshkin, the head of the Merkator think tank, is sure that "these changes in the election law will make the State Duma 'lame'. The canceled elections in single-mandate constituencies will deprive individual regions and territories of representation in parliament, despite the working theory that a party representative will be delegated to work in every region." The ban on political blocs, Mr. Oreshkin says, will prevent right-wing parties from uniting. "Considering the 7% margin, the right-wing parties that Vladislav Surkov (head of the presidential administration) once described as the fifth column [traitors] will be deprived of the opportunity to see their representatives in the Duma," the expert said. The reduced number of parties, he said, will leave parliament playing the role of "a decorative cog" in the system of state power.
Kommersant
Yukos Shadow Hangs Over Vympelcom
Vympelcom, the second largest cell phone operator in Russia, the CIS and Eastern Europe (its net profits for the first nine months this year were $269.3 million) has been served with a $157 million tax claim for 2001. Vympelcom shares on the New York Stock Exchange fell 25% yesterday, Kommersant writes.
Vympelcom has explained that most claims concern its relations with its 100% subsidiary KM Impuls (Vympelcom shared some of its profit with it and only paid taxes on its own profits).
If tax officials do not confine themselves to 2001, the state's total claims to Vympelcom for the past three years may increase to $500 million, the paper writes quoting MDM Bank analyst Sergei Reznik. "In this case the company will have to withdraw funds from circulation to pay the penalties, and its growth rates will decline," says Nadezhda Golubeva, an analyst with Aton Capital.
Major businessmen consider this to be a bad sign and readily draw a parallel with the attacks on Yukos. Iosif Bakaleinik, first vice president of SUAL Holding, the second biggest aluminum producer in Russia, does not doubt that such events will have a negative effect on the investment climate in the country. He said the market now thinks "Yukos is a trend."
Market players think that further developments depend on the authorities. On one hand, Vympelcom is a private company established from scratch, whose reputation is not tainted by any privatization event. But on the other hand, Yukos was also known as the most transparent company in Russia, but this did not save it.
Moreover, Vympelcom's main shareholder is Alfa Group, which analysts believe is the main target for the tax service. An analytical note from Aton states bluntly that Alfa Group "was playing with fire, when during an international investigation concerning a Megafon share packet, it openly accused Information Technologies Minister Leonid Reiman of corruption."
Vedomosti
Ten Years Not Enough To Double GDP - Ministry
President Vladimir Putin's instructions to double GDP within ten years are unfeasible. Today, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade is to submit to the government a program of social and economic development until 2008. In the ministry's estimates, Russia will be able to join the trajectory of GDP doubling no earlier than 2012, given the dynamic development of core industries and high world energy prices.
A Russian government official familiar with the materials told Vedomosti that the forecast had been made until 2015. According to him, it took into account development strategies hastily drawn up by ministries for ten sectors of the economy. "However, neither the strategies, nor the high oil prices will help Russia double GDP even by 2012," the source says. According to him, the target figure of 7.3% GDP growth can be achieved after 2011, and GDP can be doubled by 2015. Two officials at the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade confirmed this. One said that, under the basic 2005 scenario, oil would cost $31 per barrel. However, oil prices only provide a background, as the content and the implementation of the sectoral strategies are the main factors in making the calculations.
However, there is a problem with these strategies. The ministry only approved the strategies of the agro-industrial complex and the aircraft industry. Six other strategies were sent back for more work, while the strategies of the oil and gas and transport industries have to be reviewed radically, the ministry's official said.
In the opinion of Yaroslav Lisovolik from the United Finance Group, Russia can only reach the trajectory needed for doubling GDP if it carries out several structural reforms, for example, de-bureaucratization and de-monopolization. However, the head of the analysis department at the Bank of Moscow, Kirill Tremasov, says that the state lacks the will for reform and fears that while fulfilling the president's instructions, the government might start investing the financial resources of the Stabilization Fund in infrastructure projects. "The main thing is that the government should refrain from great interventions in the economy if it fails to meet overstated obligations," Mr. Lisovolik warns.
Vremya Novostei
Former commander: "There are no air defense forces in Russia".
Russia's air defense forces, which are part of the Air Force, have marked the 90th anniversary of their establishment. The air defense forces are actively used to patch holes in the country's air defenses that have appeared over the past decade and attempts are now being made to restore the comprehensive radar shield which existed in Soviet times, Vremya Novostei writes.
Particular hopes are being pinned on the new S-400 Triumph anti-aircraft missile system, which will come into operationas early as next year. It will also be used as part of non-strategic missile defenses. At the same time, it corresponds to the air defense concept that the Defense Ministry board adopted and is currently being finalized. However, it will take at least five to seven years to establish the air defense system.
Colonel General (Ret.) Vladimir Litvinov, a former first deputy commander-in-chief of the Russian air defense forces, believes "there are no air defense forces in Russia now."
"In the past, there was a radar and radio-technical reconnaissance system, anti-aircraft missile fire, fighter-aviation cover, and a system of command posts from a regiment to the main command," he says. "The order was received in less than a minute. This structure must be restored. Before, we had strike groups in the main areas, while we could build up available forces in the other areas. However, at present, we do not have the forces or means to build them up: combat equipment has become obsolete, and officers have left service."
In the general's opinion, the position of at least the commander of the air defense forces should have been left intact during the reforms.
General of the Army Anatoly Kornukov, a former commander-in-chief of the air defense forces, is even more critical. He thinks that the modern means of air defense can intercept only every fifth missile targeting the capital. Moreover, two thirds of the country's strategic facilities on a list approved by the president are unprotected from the air, he said. Some of the dozens of facilities that pose chemical and radiation hazards in the capital have also been left defenseless.
Gazeta
Japanese scientists cast doubt over imperial remains in St. Petersburg
The saga of the remains of the Romanov imperial family, executed by the Bolsheviks in Yekaterinburg in 1918, has taken a new staggering turn. Japanese scientists have examined the remains that were buried in St. Petersburg in 1998 and concluded that they do not belong to the Romanovs, Gazeta reports.
Kitozato Tatsuo Nagai, the director of the Japanese Institute of Forensic Medicine and Science, informed the Russian Orthodox Church about the examination's results. Unlike previous researchers, the Japanese group had a handkerchief with traces of Nicholas II's blood and sweat at their disposal. In 1997, Dr. Nagai published the results of comparing the DNA from the handkerchief with the DNA of the remains discovered in Yekaterinburg. On this occasion, scientists compared the DNA of the czar, his nephew Tikhon and the buried remains for the first time. The Moscow Patriarchate's Web site reads that the examination "rejects the position of the state committee that in 1998 officially recognized the bones found near Yekaterinburg as the remains of the czar's family."
"There is no reliable evidence about the location of the real remains," said Archpriest Vsevolod Chaplin, deputy chairman of the Patriarchy's foreign church relations department.
Boris Nemtsov, a member of the Union of Right Forces' federal political council, who chaired the committee in 1998, disagrees with the Church. The committee used relied on examinations conducted in Great Britain and the US, he says. The final conclusion was made after a test on expensive equipment, now kept at Defense Ministry Laboratory 122 in Rostov-on-Don, which has since been used to identify victims of the Beslan tragedy. This allowed scientists to declare that the remains were authentic with a 99.999999999% degree of accuracy.
Most of the Romanov line's descendants agree with the Russian Orthodox Church that the remains buried in St. Petersburg do not belong to the czar's family. Only Prince Dmitry Romanovich attended the burial in 1998. "For me it is not important whether it is them or not, for me it is a feeling, a symbol of the past," he said at the time.
