Alexei Vorobyov, an expert at Aton Capital, told Noviye Izvestia that the downward trend would not last. In the next three years, he believes, even under the most conservative scenario the price of the Urals blend will not fall below $25 dollars to $30 per barrel. And with such prices the federal budget must not experience difficulties. The critical level for Russia is $10. But even in this case, given the Stabilization Fund is in place, the country will survive one year comfortably. With a price of $15, the margin of safety will give the country two to three years of comfortable living.
Igor Belyakov, an expert of the Group of Economic Experts, also forecasts positive results for the next year. They are based on OPEC statements. In January the cartel is expected to review the price bracket to increase it from the current $22 to $28 per barrel to a new cap of $30. But, in the view of analysts, with oil high prices, the Russian economy will face other problems equally difficult to address: growing inflation and the strengthening ruble, which are planned for the next year at 8.5% and 30 rubles per dollar, respectively.
It appears the high oil prices are threatening Russia with certain problems, confirms Dmitry Belousov, an expert of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting. According to him, next year's drama will mainly unfold around the ruble exchange rate. If the government decides to make the ruble stronger, this would hold inflation back, but hit economic growth. And if the euro makes further gains, importers will drive up ruble-denominated prices for European goods. The upshot will be that the ruble will get stronger with higher oil prices. If the government lets the ruble weaken, the inflation threat will grow, and the population will opt for saving their money in dollars.
