Vedomosti/Vremya Novostei
Qatar Returns Intelligence Agents To Russia
Two Russians convicted for assassinating an ex-president of Ichkeria [Chechnya] and Chechen separatists' leader Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev, are back in Russia.
A presidential administration official told Vedomosti that the released Russians arrived in Moscow on a special flight yesterday.
The Kremlin official declined to comment on the future of the intelligence agents. In the view of an FSB staff member, it will not be publicized, because officially both men are to stay in prison until the end of their lives.
The return of the convicts to Russia will be a good sign for other Russian secret service operatives, believes Alexei Makarkin, a Center for Political Technologies expert. "The authorities have shown that they do not abandon their men." Russia has indeed exerted great efforts to secure the release of its citizens from a country with which it has practically no ties and, as a result, no leverage. The secretary of the Security Council, Igor Ivanov, has twice visited Qatar for negotiations. The return of the intelligence agents certainly "cost tremendous behind-the-scene efforts both through diplomatic channels and those of the secret services," says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Rossiya I Globalnaya Politika magazine.
Another newspaper, Vremya Novostei, writes that the two Russians had met their relatives upon their arrival in Moscow. The conditions in the Qatari prison were apparently not harsh - they were not beaten, were fed well and allowed to have walks and play sports.
A ranking Russian diplomat explained to the publication that the ultimate understandings were based on a "very appropriate wording" - the Qataris said they were being extradited "to serve out the punishment at home."
But Russian lawyers are inclined to think the wording may be interpreted as "administering justice" in the home country. And that means that the punishment may be changed in accordance with Russian legal norms.
Yandarbiyev died in the capital of Qatar, Doha, on February 13 in a car bombing. On June 30, a Qatari court sentenced two Russians - military intelligence agents, according to the media - to life imprisonment for killing "on order."
Vremya Novostei
Ukrainians And Russians Unhappy With Democratic Institutions
Opinion polls show that there are fewer supporters of democracy in Russia than in Ukraine. Ukrainians and Russians agree that Russians will not become more politically motivated in the foreseeable future, reported Vremya Novostei.
According to the opinion poll conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Center (VTsIOM) in November, 40% of respondents believe democracy is the best form of government in any circumstances. Less people (24%) believe dictatorship can be more effective than democracy in certain circumstances. And a rather large portion (27%) take a relativistic approach saying that "for individuals like me there is not difference between a dictatorship and democracy." The majority of respondents (56%) are not happy with the performance of Russia's democratic institutions.
A survey conducted by DIAS, showed that 64% of Ukrainians prefer the democratic form of government. About the same number (61%) of respondents said they were not satisfied with democratic institutes in their country. Ukrainians did not believe in the effectiveness of the majority of democratic institutes from the beginning and therefore resorted to protests.
According to VTsIOM's December survey, Russians are skeptical about the possibility of a "revolutionary" upturn in Russia.
The sections and groups of society which "propelled" mass protests in Ukraine are the least politically motivated in Russia. The most capable sections of Russian society (middle class, the youth, residents of large industrial cities, above all Moscow and St. Petersburg) apply their energy in areas besides the public and political spheres.
A sharp deterioration of the economic situation accompanied by a decline in living standards for the majority of people could prompt Russians to protest in the streets, 32% of respondents said.
However, the 1998 financial crisis did not lead to mass protests in Russia.
Commersant
Gazprom To Create New Gazpromneft For Rosneft Merger
Gazprom has found a way of continuing its merger with Rosneft without changing the existing government documents.
For this purpose, writes Commersant, Gazpromneft, which was sold by Gazprom to unassociated owners, will be renamed. The scheme of the Gazprom-Rosneft merger will not be changed. But Gazprom's newly established 100% subsidiary will take part in it instead of Gazprom itself. Its name has not been disclosed, but it will possibly soon be renamed Gazpromneft. So, nothing will have to be changed in the government documents on Gazprom's acquisition of Rosneft.
The merger will go through in January after Rosneft pays for the Yuganskneftegaz shares purchased from Baikal Finance Group (a 76.8% stake in Yukos's core production unit was sold at a tender for $9.34 billion). Nonetheless, Gazprom will claim to own the same 100% stake in Rosneft, as was previously the case, before its intention to acquire Yugansk. A source connected to Gazprom explained this as follows: "The value of Rosneft increased with the Yugansk assets, but decreased with the sum of the loans it will have to take out for purchasing it and it also due to the legal risks associated with owning this asset. Besides, Gazprom has not announced to this day the result of Rosneft valuation and the value of the package of its shares that are to be exchanged. I think that, as a result, an exchange will take place in the previously announced parameters. Besides, Gazprom will most likely insist that Rosneft borrow from it and from China National Petroleum Corporation to pay for Yugansk."
So,the situation around the Gazprom-Rosneft merger in December has been returned to where it was four months ago. Sergei Bogdanchikov, who left the post of the "old" Gazpromneft head on December 20, will again have to seek a compromise with Gazprom. So far, he has not been offered a post in the new Gazpromneft. However, sources in Gazprom say he may be appointed head of Gazpromneft-2. Meanwhile, the stakes in the game have tripled: the previous plans were to control an oil company with an annual output of 25 million tons, but now its output will be 75 million tons.
Noviye Izvestia
Are High Oil Prices A Boon For Russia?
In the last days of the outgoing year, world oil prices are continuing to drop. However, analysts are convinced that this will not last long and in the near future the situation will stabilize.
Alexei Vorobyov, an expert at Aton Capital, told Noviye Izvestia that the downward trend would not last. In the next three years, he believes, even under the most conservative scenario the price of the Urals blend will not fall below $25 dollars to $30 per barrel. And with such prices the federal budget must not experience difficulties. The critical level for Russia is $10. But even in this case, given the Stabilization Fund is in place, the country will survive one year comfortably. With a price of $15, the margin of safety will give the country two to three years of comfortable living.
Igor Belyakov, an expert of the Group of Economic Experts, also forecasts positive results for the next year. They are based on OPEC statements. In January the cartel is expected to review the price bracket to increase it from the current $22 to $28 per barrel to a new cap of $30. But, in the view of analysts, with oil high prices, the Russian economy will face other problems equally difficult to address: growing inflation and the strengthening ruble, which are planned for the next year at 8.5% and 30 rubles per dollar, respectively.
It appears thehigh oil prices are threatening Russia with certain problems, confirms Dmitry Belousov, an expert of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting. According to him, next year's drama will mainly unfold around the ruble exchange rate. If the government decides to make the ruble stronger, this would hold inflation back, but hit economic growth. And if the euro makes further gains, importers will drive up ruble-denominated prices for European goods. The upshot will be that the ruble will get stronger with higher oil prices. If the government lets the ruble weaken, the inflation threat will grow, and the population will opt for saving their money in dollars.
Finansoviye Izvestia
Supreme Court Prohibits Driving Newspapers To Bankruptcy
On Thursday the Russian Supreme Court approved a draft resolution on libel laws. Law experts and journalists agree that this document will conform Russian court practice to international experience. Among other things, the Supreme Court resolution will create additional legal obstacles for representatives of political and financial elites wishing to use the judicial branch for squaring accounts with mass-media bodies, Finansovye Izvestia reported.
Supreme Court resolutions are not considered laws though, such documents are second in importance, with local judges analyzing their provisions (after criminal, civil or other specialized codes) prior to specific verdicts.
Specific damages being awarded by courts (as compensation for plaintiffs' moral damage and business-reputation damage) should be commensurate to the damage incurred. Such compensations should not infringe upon press freedom or entail any specific publication's bankruptcy, the document notes.
Interest toward such cases became more pronounced, after the Moscow court of arbitration upheld an Alfa Bank lawsuit against the Commersant publishing house. The court ordered the paper to pay $11 million to Alfa-Bank. Russian legislationdid not set any financial limits on the plaintiff's moral sufferings until now. Consequently, Russian courts could have turned into an instrument for exerting financial pressure on any undesirable media bodies. The Russian Supreme Court has decided to put an end to this.
Mikhail Barshchevsky, who serves as the Russian government's representative in the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Court and the Higher Court of Arbitration, believes that the resolution is unlikely to affect court of arbitration rulings because such courts do not depend on general jurisdiction courts. "Specific damages should be commensurate to the damage itself," Mr. Barshchevsky said. "Such compensations must depend on the extent of damage, rather than on the solvency of any specific newspaper. Otherwise, all the poorest newspapers enjoy greater immunity."
Noviye Izvestia
Russian Lawyer Wants To Privatize Clouds
Vladimir Osipov, a lawyer from Yeisk, the Krasnodar territory, has recently claimed ownership of all clouds in the world. The relevant notice has already been legally drawn up to be sent to 150 governments. History shows that such initiatives are not always meaningless, Novye Izvestia writes.
If something has no owner, anyone can be the first to claim it. It is a well-known principle that lawyers formulate as "first among equal." Pioneers of the Wild West used it to claim land ownership.
For example, according to terrestrial law, American Denis Hope owns all the astronomic bodies in the solar system except for the Earth and the Sun. To assert his ownership, he sent notices of his territorial claims to the UN, the Soviet Union, the US, China, Canada and other countries in 1980. There was no response. Since then he has sold plots on the Moon to over two million people.
Unlike Hope, Osipov "does not intend to sell clouds."
He want to register an international environmental organization, "A Drop of Life-Giving Water" that will ensure that the rightsof clouds' owner and all humankind for healthy life are abided by. Under his plan, if pollution of the atmosphere and, consequently, clouds is registered anywhere in the world, he, as the owner of the "damaged" clouds, will go to court and demand compensation for the damage inflicted not on someone in general, but on him in person.
"I do not think it is possible to buy clouds," says Andrei Knyazev, a lawyer at Moscow's Knyazev and Partners. "Everything is already regulated by air legislation. Besides, property can be sold or at least touched, and you cannot do that with clouds."
Experts, however, maintain that clouds are material.
